Experts explained the growth in household incomes by the budget impulse of the Ministry of Finance and reminded when it will end
Real disposable incomes of the population in the first quarter of this year increased by 5.8%. Such data are provided by Rosstat in the report “The Socio-Economic Situation of Russia”. According to the department, the incomes of Russians increased due to an increase in salaries, which grew by almost 11% in February. Is this growth connected only with injections into military production, whose incomes have decreased contrary to the general trend, and when the salaries of Russians will stop growing, despite the shortage of personnel, experts told MK.
In nominal terms, the average real salary, that is, the income a citizen receives after paying taxes and fees, reached 78.4 thousand rubles in February. It increased by 10.8%, says Rosstat, which greatly influenced the total real disposable income of the population. During the period from January to March they increased by 5.8%.
However, experts disagree on how uniform this growth is and whether all Russians feel an increase in their well-being. “The growth in income of the population is uneven,” says Alexander Safonov, a professor at the Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation. — Firstly, indexation of pensions in the first quarter for persons receiving a social pension was not carried out. It usually happens in April. But insurance pensions were indexed by 7.5% from January 1. Secondly, the picture is different for public sector employees: from January 1, 2024, wages for public sector employees will be indexed in the amount of 9.8% in the fields of education, healthcare, social security, culture and science; for other workers in public sector sectors, indexation is only expected from October 1 by 4.5%.” The dynamics of income in commercial industries vary. It all depends on consumer demand. If it exists, then indexing becomes possible. If not, then salaries remain at the same level. There are industries with low wage levels and low growth rates: housing and communal services, postal services, agriculture, repair services. In these industries, the average salary is at the level of 43-46 thousand rubles, the expert indicated.
However, there is another point of view. According to Olga Romanchenko, associate professor of the Department of Sustainable Development Finance at the Russian Economic University named after G.V. Plekhanov, in the Rosstat report one can see that in a whole group of industries, not directly related to the military-industrial complex (MIC), wages have increased quite noticeably:< /p>
— by 23.4% in construction;
— by 25.8 in financial and insurance activities;
— by 29.2% in the field of sports, recreation and entertainment;
— 24.6% activity of road freight transport and transportation services;
— by 23.9% manufacturing industries.
“Russia is indeed recording economic growth, an increase in household incomes, and an increase in wages,” Igor Nikolaev, chief researcher at the Institute of Economics of the Russian Academy of Sciences, continues the conversation. — All this is an inevitable consequence of the policy pursued by the government — budgetary stimulation of the economy. This is also a consequence of the wage race in the corporate sector, which began due to a shortage of personnel, although monthly salaries do not grow at the same rate for everyone.”
The feeling that income increases only for those associated with the military-industrial complex or with complex professions, for example, with the IT sector, is not entirely correct. If you look at Rosstat’s figures, salaries have grown significantly above inflation in many other places. Let me remind you that in order for the military-industrial complex to work well, orders from metallurgical and manufacturing enterprises must increase. The military-industrial complex is an economic multiplier; its effect, like ripples on water, spreads to other industries.
There are areas of activity where wage growth is higher than expected, and even higher than the national average, and they are not directly related to either the IT sector or the military-industrial complex. For example, in the field of wood processing in February 2024, salaries increased by almost 31% in annual terms, in food production — by 24.3%, and in the field of information and communications — by 27.5%, in activities in the field of sports and entertainment — 29.2%. So in Russia there is indeed an increase in wages and it is noticeable almost everywhere. Of course, if you subtract inflation, it will be less, but still noticeably higher than the rate of price growth. Therefore, the feeling that only military-industrial complex enterprises or the IT sector have become beneficiaries of economic growth is incorrect. According to Rosstat, salaries decreased only in activities related to water transport: there was a decrease of 13.3%. But this is an exception.
Nevertheless, you need to soberly assess the current situation and not fall into excessive optimism. “In general, our anti-crisis policy is budgetary stimulation,” Nikolaev explained. “Now a lot of money is being injected into the economy. Naturally, a significant part of it reaches workers in the form of salaries. This is what the Treasury calls a fiscal impulse.” Based on the three-year budget that was passed, 2024 is the last year that this fiscal impulse will be in effect. In 2025, state treasury expenses not only will not increase, but should immediately decrease by 6%, so with a high probability such an increase in wages, despite the personnel shortage, will fade very soon, the expert warned.