GENERICO.ruEconomicsThe pitfalls of the projected average salary of 100 thousand rubles by 2027 have been named

The pitfalls of the projected average salary of 100 thousand rubles by 2027 have been named

Taking into account inflation, this will be different money

By 2027, the average monthly accrued salary of Russians will exceed 100 thousand rubles, the Ministry of Economic Development predicted. The indicator itself may be pleasing to the eye, but there is a problem associated with the accompanying negative circumstances – a growing labor shortage, low labor productivity, and most importantly – unkillable inflation and a weak ruble. One hundred thousand today and one hundred thousand in three years are far from the same thing.

Taking into account inflation, this will be different money

We are talking about wages before personal income tax, and taking into account bonuses and allowances. According to the base version of the forecast of the Ministry of Economic Development, in 2024 accrued salaries will increase by almost 10 thousand compared to last year and will approach 84 thousand (+13.6%). Then the growth rate will begin to slow down. In 2025, the figure will reach 90 thousand (+8.4%), in 2026 – 97 thousand (+7%), in 2027 – 103,403 rubles (+6.6%). At the same time, labor productivity over the next three years will increase at a rate below 2%. Regarding the dynamics of real wages (taking into account inflation), Maxim Reshetnikov’s department paints a more moderate scenario: after an increase of 6.5% this year, the figure will increase by 3.6% in 2025, 2.8% in 2026 and 2.5 % in 2027.

Meanwhile, one can rejoice at the growing level of wages only with reservations. The situation is largely generated by the structural imbalances that have occurred over the past few years both in the economy and in employment, giving rise to unprecedentedly low unemployment. According to the latest (February) data from Rosstat, it amounted to 2.8%. The provision of private companies with employees in the first quarter decreased to a minimum in the entire history of observation. In order to improve wage conditions, businesses that are unable to compete in this regard with state-owned enterprises in the manufacturing industry and the military-industrial complex are forced to “raise” prices for their products and services. Rising costs coupled with rising wages, not supported by an increase in labor productivity, leads to increased overall inflation. All this together has a negative impact on GDP growth rates, the Central Bank is sounding the alarm.

The level of wage inequality remains extremely high, both regionally and sectorally. According to Rosstat data for 2023, the maximum gap between the constituent entities of the Russian Federation in terms of average salary is 4.4 times, and between different specialties it reaches 10-15 times. For example, school teachers in the outback receive an average of 15 thousand rubles a month, and turners at defense factories in large cities receive 150-200 thousand.

“The forecast of the Ministry of Economic Development regarding accrued salaries above 100 thousand rubles is quite realistic,” says Artem Deev, head of the analytical department of AMarkets. – Moreover, the authorities, without particularly straining, can increase the figure to 150 thousand by 2027. Here you should pay attention to something else. The point is not even that this is an anecdotal “average temperature in a hospital, including the morgue”: we are talking about wages, firstly, before taxes, and secondly, taking into account bonuses and allowances. And if bonuses are an even more or less permanent matter, then a bonus is an incentive payment in its pure form, which may or may not be given.”

That is, we see that the growth will be insignificant: at the end of last year, the average salary in Russia was 73 thousand rubles, and with an increase of 27 thousand over almost four years, this is almost indexation to the level of inflation. In addition, real disposable incomes have been falling in recent years, while consumer prices, on the contrary, have been rising. And even if you don’t take into account the mortgage (which, with the Central Bank’s key rate of 16%, has become simply unaffordable), the price tags in stores are simply scary to look at: only the “borscht index” increased by 22% over the past year. Accordingly, Deev argues, even those who in 2027 will actually receive the coveted 100 thousand rubles in their hands will not be able to be particularly happy about it – after all, it will be a completely different 100 thousand.

“I consider the forecast to be underestimated: Over the next three years, our accumulated inflation will be 20 percent, no less. And the personnel shortage will not go away: the total number of employees will gradually decrease, and salary requirements will increase, notes Alexey Zubets, a professor at the Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation. – A lot of money will go from the budget to payments to military personnel, employees of military-industrial complex enterprises, and to the construction of infrastructure facilities in new territories. As a result, the economy will experience severe inflationary pressure. The annual growth rate of accrued salaries will not be 2-3%, as the Ministry of Economic Development believes, but at least 5%. That is, by 2027 we can expect amounts in the region of 110-115 thousand rubles.”

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