MK interviewed experts
Real inflation is twice as high as official values and amounts to 15%. This was stated by the first deputy chairman of the State Duma Committee on Economic Policy Nikolai Arefiev (Communist Party of the Russian Federation). According to him, the authorities are hiding the true picture because if they admit the truth, they will have to increase pensions and salaries. Why the official approach to the dynamics of price growth does not inspire confidence, how justified are the claims against government agencies, and will the situation with inflation by the end of the year be worse than the authorities expect, MK experts said.
According to Arefiev, it is not for nothing that the Bank of Russia keeps the key rate at 16% and does not want to reduce it. “This means that we have inflation at approximately 15%, — the deputy approves. — Only this is hidden. Because the key rate cannot be maintained at twice the official inflation rate — 7.7%. It doesn't happen that way. All over the world they are at the same level.”
Arefyev calculated what wages should be so that at current prices Russian citizens have enough income to live on. “Taking into account the savings for an apartment for children, for studying at a higher school, for their illnesses of old age, today you need to receive 100 thousand rubles a month,” — he stated.
The forecast of the Ministry of Economic Development states that the average monthly salary of Russians before personal income tax will be over 100 thousand rubles by 2027. However, according to Arefiev, all of it will be “gobbled up by inflation.” “The fact is that people need a 100 thousand salary today. Now people can’t make ends meet anymore,” – the deputy explained. According to him, the average annual salary of 71 thousand rubles, reported by statistics, is only nominal: “Net” 30% less, minus another 14% – income tax. It turns out there is a little more than 40 thousand. This is the average salary in the country. And salaries of 100 thousand on average – in Moscow. In the regions — 25 thousand.»
“Indeed, the inflation observed by the population (‘real’) inflation may differ significantly from the statistical one, — says Freedom Finance Global leading analyst Natalya Milchakova. — This is due to the fact that official inflation is calculated based on price increases primarily for food and non-food goods and essential services. And each specific buyer and each specific family has its own “consumer basket”: it includes products of favorite brands and those food products, goods and services that are purchased monthly in accordance with their preferences.
According to a social survey conducted monthly by the agency «inFOM» together with the Bank of Russia, in April respondents estimated the average annual inflation they observed in the country at 14.4%, and for the first quarter — an average of 15.5%. That is, the difference with Rosstat data for April in this case turned out to be huge.
At the same time, according to Igor Nikolaev, chief researcher at the Institute of Economics of the Russian Academy of Sciences, it is not for nothing that Rosstat has a monopolist in calculating the consumer price index. Correctly calculate inflation — a monumental task that can only be accomplished by a department with large resources. It is necessary to collect price data from hundreds of places, to involve hundreds, if not thousands of people who monitor price changes for a whole range of representative goods, that is, they are engaged in very complex monitoring. In general, we are talking about a colossal amount of work that allows us to obtain the final inflation indicator.
“About 15 years ago, we conducted relevant research based on the fact that the Ministry of Agriculture and Food had its own system for recording information on food products, and there it was possible to calculate an alternative inflation indicator, — added the expert. — It turned out that if Rosstat sins, it is not much — by 1-2%. At the same time, the Bank of Russia is now closely monitoring inflation. So I advise you to proceed from the fact that Rosstat gives a generally correct inflation level.
Another thing is that for different groups of the population the rise in prices is felt differently. For pensioners, in whose consumer basket a large share is occupied by food products (which rise in price faster than others), inflation will be higher. And data from Rosstat — this is like the average temperature in a hospital, Nikolaev notes. According to him, the key rate is at 16% because the Central Bank has been trying to slow down price growth for almost a year now. The regulator's forecasts, according to which by the end of the year inflation will be in the range of 4.3-4.8%, are practically unrealistic.
“Several factors need to be taken into account,&rdash; says the interlocutor «MK». – Firstly, according to Rosstat data as of mid-April, annual inflation in Russia accelerated to 7.82%, and at the end of March this figure was at 7.72%. Theoretically, from this level, price growth may slow down by the end of the year, but we must wait for subsequent events. Secondly, on July 1, housing and communal services tariffs are expected to be indexed by 9.8%, which will certainly affect prices. Thirdly, the Ministry of Economic Development recently published scenario conditions, providing, in particular, for a strong weakening of the ruble. The average annual dollar exchange rate will reach 94.7, and by the end of this year the “American” will will cost about 100 rubles. Against the backdrop of rising housing and communal services tariffs and the weakening of the ruble, it will be extremely difficult to reduce the inflation rate to 4.8%.
Market analysts also agree that the Central Bank’s forecast will not come true. “In our opinion, the figures for official inflation of 5-5.5% by the end of 2024 look more realistic,” – notes Milchakova. In her opinion, the inflation observed by the population by December in this context will not exceed 10-11%.