Economist Nikolaev explained the reasons for the replenishment of the main Russian “box”
Many Russians believe that the National Welfare Fund (NWF), this lifeline of our economy, is constantly shrinking — and how could it be otherwise? carry out various social projects under the conditions of “nuclear” sanctions and restrictions? Where can you get money “for this and that”, if not from the National Welfare Fund? However, it turns out that the fund not only does not decrease, but also grows with new income.
The volume of the National Welfare Fund in April increased by 216 billion rubles. And now this “box” contains almost 13 trillion in our national currency, which is 7.1% of GDP.
At the same time, the volume of liquid assets of the fund as of May 1 is 5.17 trillion rubles.
As of May 1 of this year, about 340 billion Chinese yuan were placed in separate accounts for the accounting of funds of the National Welfare Fund with the Bank of Russia, 334, 3 kilograms of gold in an impersonal form and, of course, Russian rubles. There are almost 660 billion rubles on deposits of VEB RF. And the funds of the National Welfare Fund are invested in securities of various companies.
It is easy to notice that the fund currently does not contain currencies that are toxic to our economy: dollars, euros, British pounds and Japanese yen. All of them left this box back in 2021, as part of the program for de-dollarization of the Russian economy.
Some analysts then predicted the decline of the National Welfare Fund: where would we be without world currencies, they say?
And the patient, as we see, he is more alive than dead. And often serves as a financial safety net for Russia.
But where does he get his funds? Still, sanctions, bans and restrictions from the West
“According to the budget rule, if oil prices exceed a certain level, then these “surpluses” go to the National Welfare Fund,” says Igor Nikolaev, chief researcher at the Institute of Economics of the Russian Academy of Sciences. — Now oil prices are higher than expected, as a result of which accumulation occurs.
— You can’t say that, it’s very exhausting! Money, as they say, tends to run out. And our government understands this well. If the National Welfare Fund were rubber, we would not, in particular, raise taxes, introduce a progressive scale, etc. Nobody knows how much oil will cost tomorrow or in the near future.
Another thing is that the funds of the National Welfare Fund are not all liquid. We have them, as it were, in two forms: the Fund itself and international reserves, which are frozen.
The liquid part is significantly less than these 13 trillion rubles. Although, even in such a situation, the National Welfare Fund looks quite stable.
— We do not take money from there for any specific purposes. They go towards balancing the federal budget, which, as you know, is in deficit this year; expenses are higher than revenues. And, according to plans, it will remain so for the next two years.
And expenditure obligations must be fulfilled, they are quite significant. According to plans, federal budget spending in 2025 should be reduced by 6% compared to this year. But it’s hard to say what it will be like in reality.
However, despite the fact that we have repeatedly taken money from the National Welfare Fund, its volumes are not decreasing too much.