GENERICO.ruEconomicsThe reason for the cancellation of preferential mortgages from July 1 is given

The reason for the cancellation of preferential mortgages from July 1 is given

“Cheap housing programs are not used by those Russians who really need to improve their living conditions.”

On July 1, two popular housing lending programs – preferential and family mortgages – will end. The Russians found themselves in limbo. Some people postpone the purchase indefinitely. Others, on the contrary, are in a hurry to buy an apartment, fearing that there will be no opportunity later.

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Experts shared their forecasts of what to expect after the abolition of preferential mortgages, and is it right that the authorities are “up in arms” against family lending, deciding to increase the rate from 6% to at least 12%.

The Ministry of Finance considers it necessary to reduce the share of preferential programs from the current more than 90% to 20-25% of the total volume of mortgages issued in the primary market, recalls Oleg Repchenko, head of Real Estate Market Indicators. So the attraction of unprecedented generosity with preferential rates is coming to an end. “However, developers continue to say that they are ready for anything except reducing prices, and are coming up with more and more creative mortgage schemes to boost sales. But such “schematas” only harm the real estate market,” says the analyst.

“The main changes in the market for new buildings in the Moscow region will occur this summer, namely: tightening conditions on the mortgage market and, as a result, its cooling,” says Elena Chegodaeva, head of the Analytics and Consulting Department at NDV Supermarket Real Estate. – In July, it is expected that preferential family mortgages, which were previously very popular due to the low rate of 6%, will be abolished, and a transition to targeted programs to support Russians. In this regard, many experts predict an increase in demand for housing in the next month and a half due to buyers who want to have time to purchase real estate with a still valid preferential mortgage. In the future, the market for new buildings will focus only on market rates and subsidies from developers.

Another trend in the primary market will be the continuation of the trend of reducing the size of apartments due to high prices. Now the most popular option among buyers is a two-room Euro-format apartment. Such housing – although modest, but personal – can accommodate a family with children, a young couple or one person.

In terms of price, this option is more affordable than others, since Euro-bedroom apartments are cheaper than full-fledged two-room apartments, but not much more expensive than one-room apartments. The average price of a Euro-bedroom apartment is 18.2 million rubles, a standard two-room apartment in Moscow is 20.4 million, a one-room apartment is 17.6 million.

The average cost per square meter will change, but relatively little, continues Elena Chegodaeva. From the beginning of the second quarter to the end of 2024, the increase in the average price per square meter will be no more than 6-8%, 0.5-0.8% per month.

“The tightening of the conditions for preferential mortgages is a completely expected decision, since since its introduction the financial market has undergone serious changes,” says Kirill Kulakov, president of the Regional Association of Appraisers, professor at the Moscow State University of Civil Engineering.

Separately, the expert highlighted a family mortgage for families with children over six years old, which until recently could be taken out at a rate of 6% per annum, but from July 1, presumably, the rate will jump to 12% and higher. In addition, it is proposed to exclude people with high incomes from family mortgages and refuse to issue preferential loans for the purchase of small-sized housing.

A mortgage loan with a rate of 6% provokes the purchase of apartments for investment purposes for further resale or rental. Cheap housing programs are increasingly being used by not those Russians who really need to improve their living conditions. This applies primarily to regions that are attractive for migration, the professor continues.

You don’t have to go far. For example, the Moscow region is one of the top three in terms of the volume of family mortgages. In 2023, more than 28 thousand mortgage loans were issued in the Moscow region for a total amount of 175 billion rubles.

– Taking into account the fact that the average salary in the region is 78 thousand rubles, families can afford to purchase apartments on preferential terms in as a source of passive income. This contradicts the social task that the state is solving: providing young families with children with their own housing, concludes Kirill Kulakov.

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