Experts recommend that potential buyers stop and think through the consequences of hasty decisions
Demand in the housing market of Moscow and the region is now on the rise, and it is supported by mortgage holders. With a high degree of probability, demand will increase further in June: people are rushing to jump on the last train of preferential mortgages — before it ends on July 1.
Experts told MK about mood of buyers in the coming month and gave recommendations on how best to behave.
— There is no need to be afraid that the state program will end with a mortgage benefit at 8% after July 1. After all, it was “thanks to” her that prices for new buildings accelerated to abnormal levels. It is logical that in the absence of such large-scale support for demand, prices will begin to deflate, which is beneficial for buyers, says Oleg Repchenko, head of the Analytical Center “Real Estate Market Indicators”.
What makes housing affordable is not a cheap mortgage, but affordable prices. And they are no longer growing on the primary market in Moscow. At least in price lists. At the same time, developers are also offering discounts, in May — up to 30% in projects with apartments.
Sales Director of the federal company Etazhi Sergei Zaitsev says that by the end of June, demand for preferential lending programs is expected to increase even further by 20-25% — provided that banks do not begin to limit the approval of applications. Some banks have already warned that due to the large flow of applications, there is a risk that new applications will be accepted only until mid-July, and in the second half of June the main emphasis will be on issuing already approved loans.
“The growth of applications for mortgages with state support is increasing,” says Tatyana Reshetnikova, deputy head of the mortgage department of the federal company Etazhi. — If in the first half of May the number of applications compared to the first half of April was 25% more, then at the end of May the increase was already 38%. Now many have begun to actively consider alternative options for purchasing an apartment on the primary market without a down payment — for example, options with a deferred payment, because they understand that they do not have time to accumulate the required amount of the down payment before the end of the program.
< span class="article__picture-description" itemprop="caption">Source: IRN.
At the same time, banks take a very individual approach to approving the requested loan amount. The final size of the loan is influenced by a number of factors: the existing debt load of the potential borrower, his past credit history, the availability of credit cards, even if the borrower has never used them, and even received loan approvals from other banks. Therefore, when submitting applications en masse to different banks, you now need to be extremely careful. The average loan size for a mortgage with state support in Russia at the end of May of this year is at the level of five million rubles, for a family mortgage — 5.2 million.
“Preferential mortgage programs, which expire on June 30, have been driving demand in the market since their launch in 2020,” says Irina Dobrokhotova, founder of BEST-Novostroy and bnMAP.pro. — Of course, with their help it was much easier to purchase a new building in a comfortable manner. And now a preferential mortgage is the only tool available to most Russians that allows them to purchase real estate with a relatively small burden on the family budget. A mortgage at the full rate — about 18% — can be afforded by a very small number of potential buyers in both the primary and secondary markets.
As for the demand for new buildings against the backdrop of the end of preferential mortgages, we do record an increase in the number of applications for the purchase of apartments under preferential programs, but in moderation, continues Irina Dobrokhotova: “People strive to make it before July 1, but we are not seeing hysterical demand, since preferential mortgage programs now have more stringent conditions than were in effect at the beginning of this program. Now the down payment is at least 30%, taking into account Moscow prices, this is a significant amount of funds. Buyers try to raise as much cash as possible at once in order to take out as little mortgage as possible. Those who are still forced to take out a mortgage at the full rate at 18%, of course, expect to refinance the loan as soon as possible.”
As in any case, with any tightening of credit conditions, demand begins to move to more affordable segments or to more accessible geographies. For example, those who wanted to buy themselves, say, a three-room apartment, will only be able to afford a two-room apartment with an expensive mortgage. Those who wanted to buy an apartment within the old borders of Moscow will look at the areas outside the Moscow Ring Road, at New Moscow, at the Moscow region. There are no real mass alternatives to preferential mortgage programs that will allow a large number of citizens to purchase an apartment in a relatively comfortable manner.
— Let's see what the developers say. They will probably implement some interesting promotions to maintain demand, but we will see them after July 1, believes Irina Dobrokhotova.
“The most important thing is not to panic and not make hasty decisions,” the writer and astrologer Karagay recommends to MK readers. — When we rely on emotions rather than common sense and carefully weighed actions, any action is doomed to failure. There is no need to get emotional, you need to sit down and carefully calculate everything. If you have a fairly large amount of money, try not only to save it, but also to increase it. A fairly high key rate gives you a chance to earn extra money with your own money by depositing it. Therefore, the option of early repayment of the mortgage can wait for now, and it is more profitable for the money to work for itself.
Source: IRN.
In this matter, trust trusted organizations, and do not be fooled by promises of large percentages or other options for quick profits, carefully read everything that is written in small print and check all registration documents.
If you don’t have the required amount for the down payment, you don’t even have to worry about it. There is no need to take on excessive loans for the sake of another loan, no matter how beautifully all the benefits are described to you. But if you have a good opportunity to take out this preferential mortgage, then why not. Remember that everything comes to an end and any situation can change sooner or later. Even if you suddenly have a financial crisis, you can refinance, negotiate on other terms — there is always a way out if you voice the problem and try to solve it, and not hide and avoid conversations with creditors.
Now there is a stir around this idea, so that people make decisions and quickly take (or not take) new obligations. But I want to note that no one can predict what the outcome of this situation will be: neither esotericists, nor financiers, otherwise we would not have unexpected price hikes, nor monetary and other crises — everything would be simple and predictable, do it yourself and do it. Therefore, you should not believe all sorts of predictors and soothsayers who supposedly see the whole situation in full view. Relying on their prophecies, you risk making a mistake, and you will have to sort out all the problems yourself. Obviously, no sorcerer or financial analyst will come to apologize and compensate for the damage.
— Yes, the conditions are quite attractive, but you should carefully analyze for yourself whether you have a financial cushion in case of sudden illness or dismissal. How much can you pay without harming yourself, your family, or your health? How reliable is the organization that is offering you the deal, are you satisfied with the quality of the housing, for which you will have to pay for more than one year. Are there any payments that are now more important than the mortgage? If everything fits, you can make such an important decision, the expert concludes.