One of the key topics this year at the St. Petersburg Economic Forum was “green energy”. The risks of the global energy transition were assessed in his report by the head of Rosneft, Igor Sechin. His speech was commented on on the pages of Nezavisimaya Gazeta and Vedomosti by political scientist Leonid Krutakov and Associate Professor at the Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation Valery Andrianov.
According to Krutakov, the forum made it possible to identify problems in green energy issues.
“The total planned cost to achieve the goals of the Paris Agreement by 2050 is more than 270 trillion. dollars (almost 3 world GDP). Given the current investment efficiency, it is not difficult to predict the result. Germany, France and Belgium are ready to reconsider their approach to achieving the goals of the European Green Deal. And the World Bank has already moved the deadlines forward by 10 years,” the expert cited data from the report.
Valery Andrianov noted that the report at SPIEF 2024 illustrated how to separate phantoms from reality using the example of the fuel and energy complex.
“Despite nearly $10 trillion of investment worldwide in the energy transition over the past two decades, alternative sources have failed to replace traditional fuels. Thus, today wind and solar energy provide less than 5% of global energy production, and the share of electric vehicles is about 3%,” Adrianov agreed with the speaker.
Leonid Krutakov said that the goal of the new energy trend in the world is to strengthen unipolar world, which rests on the control of finance, technology and logistics.
“In my opinion, we need to talk about another (after the failure of the idea of “global terrorism”) attempt by the West to create a single political language, a common agenda for discussion in the context of the collapse of the global project. On neo-Malthusianism under the auspices of sustainable development. The head of Rosneft, in fact, talks about this, as always, with numbers in his hands,” the expert continued.
The expert recalled that From 1990 to 2015, the “green ideology” ensured a drain of growth resources from developing countries to developed ones in the amount of 240 trillion. dollars.
During his speech, the head of the oil company highlighted two key trends in the global energy sector: the increased volume of mergers among energy majors and purchases of new energy assets and the increase in free oil production capacity in four countries in the Middle East.
“He goes on to say that the budgets of most OPEC+ member countries are able to withstand a possible decrease in oil prices, and very carefully notes that for Russia such a decrease may mean the lifting of price ceiling restrictions, and the revenue part of the approved budget is formed based on $60 per barrel. The problem posed requires a change in the systemic parameters of the country’s industrial policy from an inertial scenario to a mobilization one (not to be confused with a military one) and a complete revision of the monetary approaches by the Central Bank and the budgetary approaches of the Ministry of Finance,” continued political scientist Leonid Krutakov.
The experts came to a conclusion conclusion that the head of the oil company proposes to carry out changes in the energy complex based on a sound, scientific and fair approach.
In his opinion, to achieve energy security, it is important to ensure the availability and reliability of energy.
“ The energy transition must be balanced and aimed at satisfying the interests of the majority, which will ensure growth in energy consumption in the coming years, that is, developing countries. After all, it is the developed countries, which today represent a minority of the planet’s population, that have made the greatest contribution to the climate crisis,” Igor Sechin summed up in his report at SPIEF.