Mikhail Belyaev: “The Moscow Exchange doesn’t really influence anything”
The ban on trading in dollars and euros, restrictions against the Moscow Currency Exchange and the National Clearing Center gave rise to a lot of controversy even in economic circles. Some analysts have no doubt that our ruble will soon collapse and the dollar will skyrocket. Others, on the contrary, believe that the dollar and euro will suffer more from the imposed currency sanctions.
Photo: AGN «Moscow»
We turned to financial analyst, Candidate of Economic Sciences Mikhail Belyaev, and asked him to answer the question: who will be hit hardest by the new sanctions? By ruble or by dollar and euro?
“The imposed restrictions cannot affect either the dollar or the ruble,” says Mikhail Belyaev. — In relation to global dollar transactions of the Moscow Exchange, this is a drop in the ocean. The Moscow Exchange is a platform that serves the economic mechanism, and it doesn’t really influence anything. Simply a place where one currency is exchanged for another. There is no point in exaggerating its importance, in thinking that it is the measure of everything in the world. The Moscow Exchange is not a rate-setting instrument.
— It is formed under the influence of other factors, and is simply implemented on the stock exchange. Now trading will move to the over-the-counter market; the volume of currencies there is unlikely to change. The exchange rate is fixed in digital values. But it cannot be called the only correct one. It is market based, but with different market deviations of our currency against the dollar.
— The Central Bank will calculate this rate “manually” — based on additional information from other sites.
— If everything is done methodologically correctly, it will be more in line with the economic situation. It is no secret that the ruble exchange rate is greatly undervalued against the dollar. The proof is very simple. According to the World Bank, calculated based on nominal gross domestic product, Russia is in 10-11th place in the world. And in terms of purchasing power parity of the ruble, which is closer to the economic exchange rate, it is in 4th place. This gap suggests that the ruble is greatly undervalued. I believe that in the near future the exchange rate from the Central Bank will be more economically justified and the ruble will begin to strengthen.
— Some analysts predict that the dollar will cost 200 rubles or, conversely, 30 rubles, this is a discussion about nothing. The economy does not tolerate sudden changes. Even if the Central Bank manually calculates that the real exchange rate of the ruble is much higher than today, then, depending on its priorities, it will gradually and very smoothly strengthen our national currency. For what? So that the economy can adapt to the new course.
— Absolutely! I repeat: the Moscow Exchange is an important, but technical and servicing tool. Its problems will be successfully solved by other sites.