Citizens will not be able to purchase dollars and euros directly at the official exchange rate of the Central Bank
On June 13, the Bank of Russia began to calculate the official exchange rate of the dollar and euro in a new way. This step by the regulator was forced. After the US imposed sanctions against the Moscow Exchange and the National Clearing Center (NCC), trading in dollars and euros was stopped. The Central Bank determines its official exchange rate in a new way. But it is noteworthy that the rates of toxic currencies established on June 14 were lower than on the last day of trading on the exchange — 88.2 rubles per dollar and 94.8 rubles per euro. True, ordinary Russians cannot buy currency at such a price, and in banks the cost of currency is much higher. MK found out from experts what the dollar and euro exchange rates will be in the near future and why.
According to statements by the Central Bank of the Russian Federation, the reference point for calculating the exchange rate between the euro and the dollar is now the exchange rate of the yuan. To determine the over-the-counter exchange rate of Western currencies, the regulator uses bank reports and information received from digital over-the-counter trading platforms, that is, data on the weighted average of the dollar, euro or yuan exchange rates obtained as a result of transactions with settlements “tomorrow” that were carried out before 15:30 Moscow time of the current day. The final value is rounded to the nearest hundredth. For other market participants, this mechanism is not yet fully understood. “Unfortunately, we have very limited access to data from the over-the-counter market: we expect that the Central Bank will correct this soon,” noted BCS Forex analyst Anatoly Trifonov.
On the very first day after the introduction of American sanctions, the market noted that, if you believe the exchange rate set on June 13, it turns out that the domestic currency is strengthening. According to the specialist, the strengthening of the ruble exchange rate was formed due to large spreads (the so-called difference between the purchase price of a currency and its sale) on foreign exchange transactions established by banks. But there is another opinion. “The ruble strengthened after the introduction of sanctions against the Russian exchange infrastructure for several reasons: firstly, an excess of foreign currency liquidity could have formed in the market due to sanctions restrictions and the impossibility of using it within the country,” says BitRiver financial analyst Vladislav Antonov. — Secondly, participants sold the yuan due to fears of interruptions in transactions in this currency. Thirdly, a reduction in imports to Russia is expected by 15-20%, which will reduce the demand for foreign currency within the country.” In the next two weeks, the ruble exchange rate against the dollar, euro and yuan will most likely remain around current levels. The ruble will be supported by several factors: high oil prices, reduced imports, tight monetary policy of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation and sales of export earnings. However, increased volatility will remain: growing budget expenses will put pressure on the domestic currency, the expert says.
True, Russians can hardly breathe a sigh of relief, since banks are not at all going to sell foreign currency to citizens at the rate set by the Bank of Russia. Thus, the difference in the buying and selling rates of currency by the evening of June 13, the first day after the introduction of US sanctions against the Moscow Exchange and NCC, on average reached 10 rubles in exchange offices among the largest and most popular banks among the population. Moreover, the biggest difference there was 26 rubles. For comparison, on the morning of June 13, one large bank offered its clients to buy dollars for 140 rubles, and when they were sold by the population, they were ready to buy dollars for 40 rubles. This is very far from the rates set by the Central Bank of the Russian Federation. And the situation will not change in the near future.
“Purchasing currency at a rate close to the official one is possible only in the case of excess foreign exchange liquidity in individual banks: in this case, banks will reduce their own currency purchase and sale rate,” says the analyst. — However, we believe that in the near future the situation of increased spreads will continue, so purchasing currency will only be possible at a rate significantly higher than the official one. To find the most favorable rates, you will have to monitor exchange rates in several banks. At the same time, we note that even before the sanctions, it was possible to buy currency at the official rate only if the formation of the exchange rate strengthened at a level close to the announced official one, and such an operation would in any case require payment of a commission to the broker.”
< p>Banks set wide spreads in order to maximize profits and minimize risks. With limited information about trading in the over-the-counter market, they also find it difficult to predict what the official rate will be set the next day. There is a possibility that as uncertainty in the foreign exchange market decreases, as well as competition among banks increases, the difference between the purchase and sale of dollars and euros will decrease, but even in this case, it will definitely remain above the levels observed before the imposition of sanctions on the Moscow Exchange and NCC.< /p>
“We do not rule out that the Central Bank of the Russian Federation will informally limit the maximum size of spreads for banks involved in the sale of foreign exchange earnings of exporters and the regulator’s foreign exchange interventions,” the analyst suggested. But this will not be done right away, of course. In addition, over time it is possible to form over-the-counter platforms for currency trading, which will be able to take over the clearing of participants’ foreign exchange transactions. This will lead to the formation of a more market-based and predictable exchange rate and a reduction in spreads on foreign exchange transactions. But this will also take time.
“Currently, in banks, dollars and euros are traded at a premium of 5-10% to the official exchange rate due to high customer demand,” Vladislav Antonov continues the conversation. — Purchases occur on emotions, because people incorrectly assessed the market situation. It is better for citizens to hold off on the exchange and wait for the market situation to stabilize. This may take about one week.» The analyst believes that banks inflate currency exchange rates due to the high demand of the population and the lack of these currencies themselves. I do not rule out that banks are trying to create a reserve of foreign currency just in case. This happens every time there are serious currency fluctuations, the expert recalled.
According to Freedom Finance Global analyst Vladimir Chernov, in the next two weeks the dollar exchange rate set by the Central Bank of the Russian Federation will remain in the range of 87.5–93.50 rubles , in which it has been trading since November 2023 thanks to the timely repatriation of foreign exchange earnings by exporters on the exchange in the required volumes. In the last week of June, the value of the Russian ruble will tend to rise against the backdrop of the tax period in the Russian Federation, but the dollar exchange rate is unlikely to fall below 87.5 rubles in June. The euro exchange rate is likely to maintain a trading range of 94–100 rubles until the end of June, and the yuan exchange rate this month will remain in the range of 11.9–12.9. But at what rate citizens will be able to buy dollars and euros in banks, it is better to find out on their websites and branches.