What are the ways to slow down the rise in prices in the country
The topic of inflation in Russia has finally emerged as a separate genre — an explosive mixture of detective drama and utter farce. This is some kind of tangle of contradictions, woven from various statistics, as well as forecasts and statements from government departments. For example, as of July 1, inflation in the country amounted to 9.22% in annual terms, as follows from the review of the Ministry of Economic Development “On the current price situation.” Rosstat, in turn, reported that for the period from June 25 to July 1, prices in the Russian Federation increased by 0.66%, since the beginning of the year — by 3.82%. At the same time, the head of the Bank of Russia, Elvira Nabiullina, said during the ongoing Financial Congress that the regulator will take all measures to ensure predictable and low inflation.
For goodness sake, what other predictability can we talk about in this case? What “all” measures are we talking about if the only lever of influence on price dynamics at the Central Bank’s disposal is the key rate? Moreover, the effectiveness of this tool raises questions.
Yes, the acceleration of weekly inflation (to 0.66% after 0.22% from June 18 to 24) was expected: it is explained by a one-time factor, namely the indexation of tariffs for housing and communal services from July 1 — on average for the country by 9.8% . But many other things, according to Rosstat, have risen in price in seven days: cucumbers — by 6.3%, potatoes — by 4.2%, trolleybus fares — by 2.9%, vouchers to holiday homes — by 1.6 %, economy class air travel — by 3.4%… Do these numbers not seem too convincing to anyone? But this is a price increase in just a week, and there are 52 such weeks in a year!
But the Central Bank is in its repertoire: it constantly promises that things will get better and that prices are certainly about to go down. According to Deputy Chairman of the Central Bank Alexei Zabotkin, the peak of annual inflation will occur in July, and in August-September “the current rate of price growth will slow down due to tightening monetary conditions.” And by the end of 2025, the regulator intends to “ensure the return of inflation to the target of 4%.” Here we can recall the recent sarcastic appeal of State Duma deputy Andrei Makarov to Nabiullina, who once again voiced at SPIEF the reinforced concrete thesis about the 4% target: “Elvira Sakhipzadovna, have you thought well?” By the way, in early April, the head of the regulator said that the peak of inflation had already passed thanks to the tough monetary policy of the Bank of Russia.
Alas and ah: to the disappointment of officials from the Central Bank and to the shame of their analysts, the peak of inflation, despite all their statements and forecasts, remains unconquered… That is, there is a certain conceptual dissonance: although everything is uncontrollably becoming more expensive — in weekly, monthly, annual terms , the designated goal of 4% will be achieved, albeit not this year. The problem is that the high rate of the Central Bank (currently 16%, and at the July meeting, apparently, they can raise it to 17-18%) does not bring down, but only somewhat restrains the rate of inflation growth, since it does not eliminate the fundamental reasons accelerating it.< /p>
First of all, this is active budgetary stimulation of the military-industrial complex. The money supply in the economy, not backed up by goods of domestic demand, increases, which is why money (the national currency) becomes cheaper. Secondly, less and less imports are coming into the country, while calculations and logistics are becoming more complicated, which also results in rising prices. Thirdly, inflation is fueled by high interest rates on consumer and corporate loans.
And here's something else. In addition to official statistics, there are personal feelings, personal experiences of everyone who goes shopping. And in this subjective consumer space, there are absolutely different realities and figures. According to the FMCG (Fast Moving Consumer Goods) deflator index of the Romir research holding, inflation for 2023 was 19.3%, while Rosstat's was 7.42%. Experts explain this gap by the discrepancy between Rosstat's consumer basket (which includes, for example, drywall and child car seats) and the real purchases made by the population. Romir records «inflation in wallets» — it looks at what people buy, where and at what price using scanned QR codes of receipts. Moreover, the emphasis is on everyday goods, which include food, medicine, household chemicals, personal care products, and pet food. Roughly speaking, the values obtained by Romir exceed the indicators of the state statistical agency by almost three times. Which, in principle, can be considered a kind of «objectivity coefficient».
What follows from this? And that those who, without blushing, pronounce endless promises from high platforms about a quick and sharp reduction in inflation should think about stopping hanging noodles on the ears of their fellow citizens month after month, and honestly talk about the problem of high prices in the country and also honestly look for ways to solve it. Refuting the lie in this case is as easy as pie: just run to the nearest store and look at the price tags.