Preferential mortgage is dead: but there are nuances
The abolition of preferential mortgages from July 1 led to an increase in rates in five of the 20 largest banks, according to the Unified Housing Construction Information System. The average loan rate for the purchase of an apartment in a new building increased by 1.14% and amounted to 19.46%. On the secondary real estate market it increased by 1.2%, reaching 19.96%. At the same time, there are banks that offer to issue a home loan at 20.7% per annum. Against this background, it is not surprising that two-thirds of Russians, according to a recent opinion poll, have postponed the purchase of housing until better times. What will happen to the real estate market in the near future and what strategy should be chosen by citizens who want to buy an apartment, MK found out from the head of the Analytical Center “Real Estate Market Indicators” Oleg Repchenko.
Photo: ru.freepik.com
— Yes. And in Moscow even earlier — since the end of December last year, when the limit on preferential mortgages at 8% for metropolitan regions was reduced to 6 million rubles. Simple mathematics: the maximum loan amount of 6 million rubles with a minimum down payment of 30% was enough for an apartment worth no more than 8.6 million rubles. For Moscow, this is extremely low: there are practically no such prices in the capital.
— It is too early to draw conclusions. Sales will inevitably fall – that is a fact. Moreover, family mortgages have also been “tweaked”: the authorities have changed the terms and conditions and now in large cities they are available only to families with at least one child under 6 years of age. An exception has been made only for families with a disabled child, for residents of regions with a low volume of construction and small towns, that is, settlements with a population of up to 50 thousand people – the age of the children is not important there. However, this change will lead to the fact that now the demand for the remaining preferential loans, and therefore for new buildings in general, will noticeably decrease. If not to the 25% desired by the Ministry of Finance, then very significantly.
— Those who have saved up a significant part of the cost of the apartment, but are missing a little, as well as those who take out loans for a short period. Taking out a mortgage for twenty years at 20% is, to put it mildly, expensive. You can calculate: for an apartment worth 10 million rubles with a down payment of 30% for 20 years at a rate of 20% you will have to pay 119,000 rubles. per month, and the overpayment for the entire period will exceed 20 million rubles. These are unaffordable amounts for most potential borrowers. However, among them there may be those who take out a mortgage at a market interest rate with a minimum down payment in the hope of quick refinancing. But here borrowers may be disappointed: according to the regulator’s forecast, the key rate will remain double-digit not only this year, but also next year, which means there won’t be cheap mortgages for a long time yet – at least a year and a half.
— Developers, indeed, increased their sales well during the rush of last year, when the key rate soared, and also in the spring and summer of this year against the backdrop of the abolition of preferential mortgages. So for now they can survive even on low demand. But the loan funds will gradually be spent on construction, and escrow accounts need to be filled. Therefore, sooner or later they will have to revise prices in order not to lose sales and stay afloat.
The main conflict is that the construction business will most likely become less profitable. And this, in general, can be taken philosophically: there are periods when companies work at zero in order to maintain market share and start making a profit again when the situation changes.
— Perhaps the decline will be noticeable towards the end of the year against the backdrop of sagging sales. Not sharp and not for all objects at once, but differentiated, depending on the specific object. And, most likely, under the guise of discounts and promotions that allow you to buy more for the same money – storage room or renovation as a gift, for example. Plus, new facilities will enter the market at prices lower than those under construction – in contrast to recent years, when even commissioned buildings could be cheaper than new ones at zero cycle. The rise in prices as the house is built will also decrease.
— There can be no universal advice here. As we have already calculated, for an apartment worth 10 million with a 10-year mortgage at 20% per month you will have to pay 119,000 rubles. per month. But if the down payment is larger, then the payment will be lower. But what kind of apartment will it be if we talk about Moscow? Studio, one-room apartment, maximum two-room apartment on the periphery. Plus, this will be an apartment under construction; additional investments will be needed in repairs, furnishings, etc. It is possible to rent a one-room apartment in areas remote from the center, depending on the condition of the apartment, for 40 – 60 thousand rubles per month. But you are renting someone else’s property, and in the case of a mortgage, the borrower pays for his own home.
In general, a period of high key rates — this is a good time to save. If the housing problem is not acute, then you can put money on a deposit, the rates for which are very attractive today. In a year or two, the amount will increase significantly, and mortgage rates may decrease — if the April forecast of the Central Bank to reduce the key rate to 6-7% in 2026 comes true. And the buyer will have a good down payment for the purchase of an apartment.
— It’s good to monitor the market, look for interesting offers that will appear on the market sooner or later: most likely by the end of this year and at the beginning of next, because it is obvious that sales will decline and this will put pressure on prices.
Plus, targeted mortgage state support remains on the market with rates that are more adequate for borrowers. Find out whether you meet their conditions, and if so, then you can act without delay.