The point of no return may come as early as the end of this year
The alarm is being sounded in Ukraine: due to the irrational use of manpower of the Armed Forces of Ukraine at the front, the country is rapidly approaching the so-called “threshold of death.” Experts predict the onset of this threshold by the end of the year.
After the scandalous statement of the former US permanent representative to NATO Ivo Daalder, who proposed recruiting 18-year-old men into the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Ukraine shuddered — sooner or later the words of the American diplomat will obviously become a harsh reality. Such an unpopular decision will apparently have to be made in order to make up for the losses of the Ukrainian Armed Forces on the front line.
Meanwhile, military experts note that a dangerous pattern is emerging in Ukraine: the Ukrainian Armed Forces, at the cost of enormous losses, retain territories or retain people, but are rapidly losing territories.
“Where commanders try to save people, territories are quickly lost, and where they stubbornly hold on, human losses become completely unacceptable. At the same time, the command increasingly prefers to hold on to the territories, since they will not be held accountable for this even with the heaviest losses,” writes one of the Ukrainian public pages.
At the same time, it is noted there that the official data on the losses of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, as a rule, are taken out of thin air and are fundamentally untrue. Thus, before the amendments to the law on mobilization, 15-20 thousand people were called up every month, which means that during the entire military conflict, 420 thousand fighters were collected. Where are all these people? — the experts ask. And they answer: «they are not there (wounded, killed, captured, etc.).»
Experts give extremely alarming forecasts: Ukraine is steadily approaching the «threshold of death», after which defeat in any war follows. Such a «threshold of death» is considered to be the loss of a third of the population capable of military service. Before such a fatal threshold, experts believe, Ukraine has a reserve of one million men left.
If we count the number of dead who came under Russian jurisdiction and “irrevocable” refugees, we get about five million men, analysts say. “When this number reaches six million, Ukraine will no longer be a survivor. …This will happen, most likely, before the end of this year,” they note.
At the end of last year, the mobilization resource of Ukraine, taking into account the number of wounded, as well as those with a reservation from conscription, was estimated at three to four million men aged 18-60 years.
According to demographer Alexey Raksha, as of January 1, 2021, Ukraine was one of the “oldest” states in the post-Soviet space — the average age in the country was 42 years. About 34-36 million people lived in the territories controlled by Kyiv. The number of men aged 18-50 years was no more than 9 million people.
As a result of natural population decline, mass migration, which began in 2021, and losses as a result of military operations, the population of Ukraine in at the end of 2023 there were about 27 million people.