Agricultural expert Korbut: “We won’t eat everything ourselves”
In the 2023-2024 agricultural season, for the first time in history, Russia took over 25% of world wheat exports: 55.3 million tons. Second place, with a significant lag (36.3 million tons), was taken by the countries of the European Union taken together. Well, Canada closes the honorable top three bread exporters with 25 million tons. One could certainly be proud of this domestic achievement. But consumers also have concerns: crop losses are now expected due to extreme temperatures. Will there be enough grain for the domestic market?
The agricultural season is not spring, when sowing begins, and not autumn, when the battle for bread ends. If we take the last season, it began on July 1, 2023, and ended on June 30 of this year. That's how Russian farmers have their own calendar. Planted, harvested, sold — a full cycle, one might say, the circulation of grain in nature.
So, after all these events, according to the International Grains Council, it turned out that during the last agricultural season, domestic grain growers exported 55.3 million tons of wheat. Which accounts for more than a quarter of world bread exports. To be more precise, 26.1%.
This is the maximum export volume in all modern history. Despite the fact that previously we had no sanctions, no restrictions, no “unfriendly” sanctions. countries… And if we look into even earlier times, then, as independent agricultural expert Alexander Korbut told us, Soviet collective farmers exported wheat only in the distant 50-60s of the last century. After which the USSR began purchasing bread from the West.
And Russia is setting records in very difficult conditions. Peasants work under strict economic sanctions with all the ensuing consequences: difficulties in logistics, increased prices for spare parts for imported equipment purchased by farmers back in the 2000s. But, as they say, the caravan moves on…
Russian grains account for 33% of our total agricultural food exports; they are bought by 138 countries around the world. Main consumers – countries in Africa, the Middle East, Southeast Asia and Latin America. Revenue from the sale of wheat averages 9-10 billion dollars a year.
But will the current weather prevent us from harvesting a decent grain harvest? And won’t it turn out that, having become carried away by export supplies, we ourselves will remain on a “starvation ration”?
— The fact that we are the world leaders in exports – This is far from new; we have been doing this since 2016,” says Alexander Korbut. – Now we have conquered 26% of the world market, this is a good indicator, a great success for Russian peasants.
— No. We can potentially increase production volumes without even increasing the acreage. Through the use of new technologies, increasing productivity.
— Acceptable for the buyer, but we, Russian farmers, would like it higher. This is business as usual, Russia – not the only country that exports the crop. The buyer wants to take it cheaper, the seller – give more. In the process of agreeing on the price, the moment of truth comes.
— Even theoretically, there is no such risk. Yes, the current harvest will be smaller due to difficult weather conditions, but at a level slightly below the average for the last 5 years. If last year the gross grain harvest amounted to 145 million tons, then this year it will be within 135 million. We will again become world leaders in exports. Whatever the price on the world market, the crop will still have to be sold. We won’t eat it all ourselves.
— 88 million tons. If we produce 132-135 million, then 50-55 million tons need to be sold. And we also have reserves from last season — approximately 18-19 million tons. We have more than enough for internal needs.
— Unfortunately, they are quite low, and there are no factors that would encourage them to grow. There are several reasons. Primarily, prices are determined by the Chicago Stock Exchange. In addition, according to forecasts, world wheat consumption, which means export opportunities, is declining. Fundamental factors of supply and demand are at work. They put pressure on prices.