Land and political will
Even Klitschko gave a surprisingly coherent thought: “Zelensky will probably have to resort to a referendum, I don’t think he will be able to come to such painful and important agreements independently, without legitimation by the people.” This is how the mayor of Kyiv reacted to the haggling over the upcoming negotiations on Ukraine, which sharply intensified this week, like boiling porridge escaping from a saucepan.
Donald Trump held his first campaign rally since the attack in Michigan. He, of course, repeats himself, we have already heard this from him, but nevertheless: “Even before I occupy the Oval Office, shortly after winning the presidential election, I will resolve this terrible military conflict between Russia and Ukraine. I am the only one who can make such a statement: I will prevent the third world war.» Potential Vice President J.D. Vance also spoke there: “There is nothing wrong with strengthening national security. When we fight, we hit hard. However, we should be careful not to try to drag America into every conflict on the other side of the globe. Sometimes it's just not our thing and we should stay away. It's common sense.»
And now Zelensky has already started talking about negotiations. In the UK (he is in no hurry to return home), he gave an interview to the BBC and said that Ukraine could end the “hot phase of the war with Russia” by the end of this year.
As CNN already believes, because of the successes of Russia and Trump. Russia is pressing at the front, moving forward slowly but surely, while questions are being raised about the readiness of Ukraine's closest allies, such as the United States and Germany, to continue supporting Kyiv. Germany plans to halve military aid to Ukraine next year, hoping Ukraine can meet its military needs with $50 billion in loans from frozen Russian assets.
Ending the “hot phase,” according to Zelensky , “does not mean that all territories must be conquered in battle.” Like, “this can be achieved through diplomacy.” But Ukraine desperately needs military support, since “weakening Russia on the battlefield will put Ukraine in a stronger position at the negotiating table.”
Former British Prime Minister Boris Johnson said that Trump could end the conflict, and, according to Johnson, in resolving the conflict, Russia “will have to retreat” to at least the borders that existed in 2022. And to avoid future conflicts and uncertainty, the rest of Ukraine must be recognized as a free country, able to choose its own destiny within the EU and NATO.
It can be stated that the first series of bargaining revolved around the territories. The fact that Kyiv will have to give up part of the land is no longer discussed. What part is being discussed. The 1991 borders are forgotten, Johnson, as if trying to bring down the price on the market, is pushing the idea of 2022 borders. But Putin unequivocally stated: Russia will receive at least the DPR, LPR, Kherson and Zaporozhye regions within their administrative borders. Because this is already Russia. This is political will. When the enemy accepts this reality, bargaining will begin about the arrangement of the remaining Ukraine — non-aligned status, the number of weapons, state power, etc. And this, it is worth noting, is the calmest scenario, theoretical. In practice, there is too much uncertainty — the time of “black swans” has continued for the third year.
And here this week, the ex-head of the Moscow Department of Culture, Alexander Kibovsky, was detained. The Investigative Committee of Russia said that he was charged with eight counts of accepting bribes (for more than 100 million rubles) and one count of attempted fraud. Under these articles he faces up to 15 years in prison.
And here the reaction of Ksenia Sobchak, who began to talk about the explainability of “negative selection of bureaucrats,” is extremely indicative. Like, “they can accuse you of anything at any time after removal from office and put you in jail,” “you can’t leave the country, most likely you also live under sanctions,” “you can’t open an account in a bank (obviously foreign.) » “Who is this fate attractive to?” — asks Sobchak. And this is the classic message of the “elite”, which has been formed since the early 90s and lives in a parallel reality to us: you need to become an official only in order to grab with impunity and send the stolen goods abroad with impunity.
But this week there was also an example of an official — a healthy person. Evgeny Naumov, the mayor of Krasnodar, arrived in one of the districts of the city, where residents took to the streets to protest due to constant power and water outages due to a power failure. And he said that he would be with the people until the electricity was returned to the residents. He even suggested that those who were particularly distrustful should chain him to a lamppost. And this — an honest conversation with people and unity with them — instantly extinguished the people's anger.
It is significant and sad that the adequate actions of the official still cause surprise and admiration among the public. But they should be the norm, a routine.
Actually, the conclusion is simple — power must be of the people. If the rear changes in this way, there will be no problems at the front. And it wouldn’t even come to bargaining, but we have what we have.