The growth of the minimum wage is still outpacing inflation: will the pace continue until 2030
Starting next year, the Ministry of Labor plans to increase the minimum wage (MROT) by 16.6%, to 22400 rubles. This was reported by the Minister of Labor and Social Protection of the Russian Federation Anton Kotyakov. Thus, compared to this year, the “minimum wage” will increase by a good 3 thousand rubles
According to the head of the Ministry of Labor, in 2024 in Russia they returned to the method of tying this indicator not to the average, but to the median salary. And starting next year, the “minimum wage” is set within 48% of the median.
Why the median salary? According to experts, in this case it is considered a more objective indicator than the arithmetic mean, which is formed mainly by wealthier Russians, and therefore is always higher than the median salary. In addition, the median indicator more accurately reflects the situation in the country's economy.
Recall: this year the minimum wage is 19,242 rubles. That is, from next year it will increase by more than 3 thousand rubles.
As you know, Vladimir Putin set the task of increasing the minimum wage “at a faster pace” (compared to inflation) to the Cabinet of Ministers in his message to the Federal Assembly in February of this year. Until 2030, this figure should be 35 thousand rubles per month, that is, the “minimum wage” should increase, compared to 2024, by more than 15 thousand rubles.
The “fast pace” that the president spoke about , on the face. In order to reach the target of 35 thousand rubles over the remaining 6 years, you need to increase the figure by 2.5 thousand per year. And the Ministry of Labor in its programs next year envisages a breakthrough of 3 thousand.
The increase in the minimum wage will affect 4.2 million people in Russia — this is exactly how many workers, according to official statistics, earn it.
However, it is too early to rejoice at the rapid pace of increase in the minimum wage. Some citizens believe that from now on and forever no one in the country will receive less than the minimum wage; the law will not allow it. It will happen. To begin with, at least with the fact that the “minimum wage” is calculated before taxes are paid. Therefore, after paying the income tax, the amount is automatically reduced by 13%, that is, it becomes less than the “minimum wage”.
In addition, the employer really does not have the right to pay an employee below the minimum wage. Otherwise, he faces a fine of 1 to 5 thousand rubles if he is an individual and from 30 to 50 thousand if he is a legal entity. However, the minimum wage law states that an employee must fulfill all the terms of the employment contract: arrive and leave work on time, strictly observe labor discipline… If he does not do something or does it wrong, the employer has every reason to reduce his minimum wage — and there are no complaints about him.
Of course, such actions of the boss can be challenged — in court, in the prosecutor's office or in the labor inspectorate. But even if all these three authorities become a mountain for an employee, it is not a fact that in the future he will be able to work at this enterprise.
And yet, even with such “costs”, the minimum wage is of great importance in the lives of Russians. This is what Pavel Kudyukin, a member of the Council of the Russian Labor Confederation and former Deputy Minister of Labor of the Russian Federation, thinks so.
— 4.2 million people, apparently, those people who, for various reasons, receive a salary equal to one minimum wage, — he explains. — However, payments for sick leave, maternity leave, child care benefits and some other social benefits are tied to this indicator. In addition, do not forget that at certain enterprises the salaries of some categories of workers are also tied to the minimum wage or to its increasing coefficient. This is done by local regulations, through the wage scale and must be stipulated in the contract or in the collective agreement. In my opinion, raising the minimum wage entails an increase in salaries for many groups of workers.
— If the government begins to accelerate inflation, then such a task will be easily accomplished.
— It is very difficult to predict anything for such a long period, including the minimum wage. We don’t know what will happen in a year, and even more so in 6 years.
The very fact of increasing the minimum wage is, of course, gratifying. Both the minimum wage and the cost of living in the country are greatly underestimated, this is not even discussed. According to some analysts, this is one of the elements of our curse, which is called the economy of cheap labor, a brake on economic development.
Even if we do not talk about the principles of social justice, it is enough to look at the level of the minimum wage to understand: for such a salary one can only exist. It means insufficient effective demand, lack of incentives for technological progress.
Therefore, increasing the minimum wage is necessary. It’s just unknown how significant the amount of 35 thousand rubles in a Russian’s wallet will be in 2030 as a result of inflation.