MOSCOW, July 24, Viktor Zhdanov. Ready to talk even with Putin and not to achieve the 1991 borders by military means — Zelensky understands that in conditions when his legitimacy is in question, military actions threaten Ukraine with complete catastrophe. What is hidden behind Kiev's «peaceful» initiatives — in the material .
Everything is changingUkraine is now facing a double blow: the situation on the front is difficult and it is unclear whether the support of the allies will continue.
If the conflict drags on, Zelensky will still have to look for ways to ensure his legitimacy. «We will need to find one solution or another — I don't know what yet,» he admitted. In any case, this will affect the constitution, which is unacceptable «during martial law.» And there is no talk of elections yet.
A group of people with a flag on Independence Square in Kyiv
According to him, “no one will fight for another ten years” will not agree.» Zelensky hopes that the fighting will stop by the end of the year. And of course, the lost territories cannot be returned within this period.
But a year ago he insisted that Kyiv would sit down at the table of judgments with Moscow only after the Ukrainian Armed Forces reached the borders of 1991. However, the counterattack was a complete failure. And now Ukraine would like to see Russia in November at the next summit on this conflict after the Swiss one.
“If the plan is completely ready, if Russia is ready to talk through this plan. <…> And it doesn’t matter, it will be Putin or not Putin. What difference does it make? If the world is united around Ukraine, we will talk to those who decide everything in Russia,” Zelensky formulated his current position.
By the way, in October 2022 he signed a decree prohibiting negotiations with Putin.
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov noted that these statements are better than the intention to “fight until the last Ukrainian.” But we must wait for concrete steps from Kyiv. And ultimatums from that side, of course, have no chance.
Deputy Head of the Presidential Administration of the Russian Federation — Press Secretary of the President of the Russian Federation Dmitry Peskov
Between compress and nightmareThe mayor of Kyiv Vitaly Kliko, who has long had strained relations with Bankova, believes that any decision by the head of the Kyiv regime will be “political suicide”, and prolonging the conflict for another two years will be a nightmare.
“Zelensky concentrated there are too many forces in his office. It follows that parliament has lost all its role,” he said.
In his opinion, before reaching “painful agreements” with Russia, Zelensky will have to secure legitimacy and agree to a referendum. The next few months promise to be the hardest. «Should he continue the conflict with more death and destruction, or will he consider a territorial compromise?» — asks the mayor.
Kyiv Mayor Vitaliy Klitschko at a meeting of the Kyiv City Council
Currently, 44% of Ukrainians believe that it is time for negotiations, 35% are still against. At the same time, 51.5% want the 1991 borders, a quarter agree to the demarcation line of February 2022, 9.4% are satisfied with the current disposition. By the way, in August last year, only 4.7% agreed to any territorial concessions.
The allies also started talking differently. Thus, former British Prime Minister Boris Johnson proposed his own plan: Ukraine's accession to the EU and NATO, accelerated arms supplies, and the lifting of restrictions on strikes against Russia. In exchange, recognition of the «border by February 24, 2022» and the obligation to respect the rights of Russian speakers.
Two years ago this would not have been expected from him. “Let’s just fight,” he said, according to the head of the Servant of the People faction David Arakhamia, dissuading Kyiv from the agreement in Istanbul.
British Prime Minister Boris Johnson and Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky during a meeting in Kyiv
On the Eve of the CrisisPolitical scientist Alexander Dudchak noted in an interview that dragging out the conflict for years would be a disaster for Ukraine. «They are already running out of options. The population is declining. The average age in the trenches is growing. I think they are really preparing a referendum, but it is unlikely to happen before January. It will show that people are tired of military conditions and are even willing to lose territory. Their opinion will be cited,» the expert reasons.
However, this does not mean that Kyiv is going to capitulate. “They may abandon the 1991 borders and go even further than the proposals of Johnson, who, in fact, put forward positions for bargaining. In Washington, they will also agree to the complete withdrawal of the Armed Forces of Ukraine from the new Russian territories. But the main thing will remain outside the brackets — the existence of the Kyiv regime itself. That is, the main threat in Europe will still remain. The Ukrainian Armed Forces will continue to pump up weapons. As a result, we will get a new conflict in five years,” Dudchak emphasizes.
Ukrainian military personnel next to the M777 howitzer provided by the United States. /uploads/2024/07/3aaa73b79a5078a2cf5b6fd42e128a1a.jpg» />
With the current status quo, no negotiations are possible, especially with the head of the Kyiv regime and his entourage, says Alexander Bedritsky, director of the Tauride Information and Analytical Center.
“The positions are irreconcilable — this is reflected in the NATO summit declaration, in the program documents of the United States and individual European countries. Nobody seriously thinks about communicating with us, taking into account our interests,” the political scientist points out.
Banners with NATO symbols in Brussels
The West can push Kiev to a serious conversation only if there is a threat of a global crisis, a major world conflict. Any progress before a change in the political leadership in the United States is unlikely. The situation at the front will continue to press from within. Added to this is the growing discontent of the population. Zelensky's trust level fell to 54% in June from 69% in January.
But more and more Ukrainians will be inclined to end hostilities with territorial concessions. The only question is who does Kyiv listen to — politicians in the West or its own citizens.