MOSCOW, July 27. The ruble did not react to the first and rather sharp increase in the key rate this year. This means that we may be on the threshold of an era of a strong ruble, economist and director of communications at BitRiver Andrei Loboda said in an interview with the Prime agency.
In his opinion, until the beginning of August the dollar will cost 84-87 rubles, and changes possible only after the end of the tax period — the rate will weaken to 87-89 rubles per dollar.
«It is quite possible that today we are witnessing the birth of a strong ruble policy. It is necessary for the further qualitative development of the Russian economy with a low key rate. But first we need to finally say goodbye to the era of high inflation and a constantly depreciating, but expensive for borrowers ruble against the backdrop of a high capital outflow,» he believes.
For the economy, the rate increase will be unpleasant, but not disastrous: the extractive industries do not currently need large-scale loans, and small and medium businesses are counting on preferential financing from the Ministry of Industry and Trade and regional budgets.
At the same time, a slowdown in inflation, which the Central Bank is counting on, is very likely — now prices are rising mainly due to external reasons and only in certain product groups. Perhaps, this process will be curbed to the end, and inflation will not exceed 7%, Loboda concluded.