MOSCOW, August 5Over the ten years of the food embargo, Russia has increased food production by 20%, reduced imports by 14%, and increased exports more than 2-fold. Experts and analysts talk about what became the driving force, what replaced Italian parmesan on Russian shelves, and whether consumers still need Norwegian salmon.
In August 2014, Russian President Vladimir Putin imposed a food embargo, closing the Russian market to meat, sausages, fish and seafood, vegetables, fruits and dairy products from the United States, the European Union, Canada, Australia and Norway. The consumer, accustomed to Italian mozzarella and Spanish jamon, Australian beef and Norwegian salmon, initially panicked, but businesses finally saw free niches and rushed to occupy them. 
The result was not long in coming — domestic agriculture, with the help of state support, has truly revived over these ten years: agricultural production increased from 2013 to 2023 by 20%, to 8.3 trillion rubles in actual prices, says Oleg Knyazkov, head of the industry expertise center at Rosselkhozbank. At the same time, its import decreased — by 14%, to 35.1 billion dollars, and exports from 2014 to 2023 more than doubled — to 43.5 billion dollars, adds Anton Trenin, an expert at the ACRA corporate ratings group.
«As a result, in 2023, the balance of food exports and imports reached a historical maximum and amounted to 8.4 billion dollars, which indicates a change in the food market landscape and the successful development of its domestic segment. The key factor in the development of agriculture in Russia was state support and large-scale private investment,» notes Trenin.
As a result, the level of agricultural production achieved in Russia by 2024 allows not only to significantly saturate the domestic market (by the end of 2023, the level of self-sufficiency in the main product groups exceeded 85%), but also to enter the top twenty largest world food exporters, supplying products to most countries in the world, the analyst adds.
This is all mine, dear
The domestic agro-industrial complex has been most successful in substituting meat and fish products: here self-sufficiency has already reached 100% and 165%, respectively, and in the latter, imports (shrimp, dorado, tuna) are no longer the main ones, but only expand the range, says Trenin. Over the ten years from 2013 to 2023, Russian fish imports have fallen significantly, then grown, then declined again, but ultimately decreased by 35.3%, to 656 thousand tons, while fish production over the same period increased by 22%, to 4.4 million tons, adds German Zverev, President of the All-Russian Association of Fishery Producers (VARPE). 
«Until 2014, a significant volume of herring arriving at processing plants in the European part of the country was of foreign origin. This is despite the fact that Russia is the largest herring producer in the world. Previously, it was more profitable and convenient for processors to buy imported products, now they are focusing on domestic catches,» Zverev gives an example.
Over these years, the popular in the USSR sardine Iwashi — an analogue of herring, as well as sprats have returned to the Russian fishing areas: more than half of the sprats in Russia before the food embargo were imported from Latvia, but now 100% of the sprats on the shelves are Russian. It was possible to replace imported cod fillets and increase the supply of pollock, adds Zverev. The aquaculture sector also showed impressive results.
«With the emergence of a new niche in the market, farmers have established the cultivation of valuable seafood — oysters, mussels and others. During this period, their production has grown from minimum values to 84 thousand tons by the end of 2023. Today, 70% of oysters in the retail and restaurant sector are domestic,» the president of VARPE gives an example. Trout and salmon have also been replaced: in the last 5 years alone, their production in Russia has increased by 2.4 times, to 158.6 thousand tons. «Moreover, consumer surveys and feedback from restaurateurs and retailers indicate that Russians prefer domestic salmon, choosing «Murmansk salmon» or «Karelian trout,» Zverev adds.
In addition, Russia is fully self-sufficient in vegetable oil and beet sugar, and has also significantly increased grain production, which today accounts for more than a third of Russian exports in monetary terms, Trenin notes. 
«In 2013-2023, Russia fully provided itself with grain — from 140% to 171%, meat — from 84% to 102%, milk — from 77% to 102% (taking into account the union with Belarus), as well as vegetable oils — from 98% to 227%… The Russian agro-industrial complex can give any foreign industry a run for its money. Today, Russia is No. 1 in the world in the production of grain and sunflower oil, No. 1 in Europe in the production of broiler meat, milk, No. 2 in the production of pork,» Knyazkov gives an example.
Not leaders yet
Import substitution in the dairy and vegetable sectors has not been so successful, analysts add, and there are problems in the domestic seed sector (especially in corn, sugar beets, and in the vegetable segment). Thus, self-sufficiency in the dairy industry reached 85% in 2023, with ice cream, milk, cream, kefir, and yoghurts leading the way. The situation is worse with cheeses (76%) and butter (74%), says Trenin.
However, development continues, and the 90% figure for dairy products, as stipulated in the Doctrine of Food Security, can be reached within 3-5 years, notes Trenin. For vegetables, Russia already approached it last year, reaching the level of 89.4%.
«At the same time, the dependence on imports of tomatoes remains (the self-sufficiency rate is about 70%), while for cucumbers it is approaching 100%. The severe climatic conditions in a number of Russian regions and the high dependence of crop yields on the weather factor determine the stable interest of companies in building production facilities for growing vegetables in closed ground, which contributes to further saturation of the market,» says the expert. 
The situation with berries and fruits is the most difficult: here it is impossible to remove all the barriers that prevent self-sufficiency, Trenin believes. While apple production satisfies domestic demand by almost 80%, for most fruits and berries there is a significant share of imports from friendly countries, due to both the limited domestic production of pears, peaches, cherries and cherries, and the climatic conditions of Russia, in which exotic fruits do not grow. Here, the indicator of self-sufficiency in fruits and berries in the country has not even reached 50%; it is planned to achieve the goal of 60% by 2030 due to the growth of berry production — blueberries, raspberries, strawberries, blackberries and cranberries, he adds.
However, some producers were able to use the new opportunities to the fullest. Thus, the largest domestic milk producer, the EkoNiva company, has managed to increase production hundreds of times since 2013, launch processing and significantly increase the range of products, which at that time consisted only of pasteurized milk and sour cream, said Alexey Maslennikov, Deputy General Director of EkoNiva-Food Products.
Moreover, the company decided not to replace the famous and already familiar to the market mozzarella and parmesan cheeses, but to offer new ones — in order to develop a culture of their consumption and promote Russian cheeses abroad, he adds. As a result, over the past year alone, it has increased cheese production by 7 times, to 8,300 tons (versus 1,200 tons in 2022), and overall dairy production by 70%, to 279.5 thousand tons. 
Drivers and growth points
Although the Russian market today is full of opportunities, it also has pitfalls, experts say.
«We have ceased to depend on imports for finished dairy products, since domestic producers have successfully replaced all the main categories, exports are actively developing, and not only of exchange goods, but also of finished dairy products. In Russia, the consumption of dairy products is growing following the growth of real disposable incomes of the population, this instills a certain optimism in producers,» Maslennikov gives an example.
In addition, thanks to the quality of Russian milk and the comfortable ruble exchange rate against major world currencies, Russia has every chance of becoming the largest supplier of a wide range of dairy products to world markets, and this is one of the main drivers for the development of the Russian dairy industry.
At the same time, production costs continue to grow due to an increase in the key rate, a shortage of personnel and a number of other reasons. «Under these conditions, companies need to carefully consider their strategy and at the same time be flexible in order to adapt to changing market conditions,» Maslennikov believes. 
< br />New sanctions are also a hindrance, Zverev adds. «Fish is the most sold product on the global food market after grain. For many years, this giant market lived by clear rules, but in 2023, its participants stopped following them. Sanctions against Russia, which remains one of the main fishing powers, have become a trigger for a large-scale reorganization of the entire global fisheries industry,» he recalls.
It is difficult to predict how events will develop: Trenin notes that for now the food embargo is in effect until the end of this year, but «the likelihood of another extension in the difficult geopolitical situation looks high.»
However, despite everything, the main result was achieved: Russia has tasted its own products, analysts agree. «The fact that consumers have more confidence in domestic products today encourages retailers and restaurateurs to increase purchases of domestic products, change production technologies and introduce new dishes to the menu,» notes the President of VARPE.
Although we cannot stop there: according to the May decrees of the President, the plan for the next 6 years is to increase the volume of agricultural products by 25%, and exports by 50% compared to 2021. The Ministry of Agriculture has already presented plans to implement these goals, and projects for technological independence will help them starting next year; it's up to business, experts are sure.