Experts have explained whether there will be a crisis in the housing market and whether prices for apartments in new buildings will fall
Citizens have noticeably lost interest in family mortgages in a month after their relaunch under new conditions. In July, the number of applications for this state program decreased by 22% compared to June. Demand fell most sharply in the two capitals and the Leningrad Region — regions that previously led in terms of the volume of preferential housing loans issued. MK found out from experts how the decline in demand will affect the real estate market, whether it will lead to a crisis or a decrease in the cost per square meter.
In July, banks received only 152.6 thousand applications for family mortgages. Compared to June, demand has decreased by 22%. This loss of interest is due to changes in the terms of family mortgages. Now, only families with two or more children, at least one of whom is under 6 years old, can count on receiving a preferential loan at a rate of no more than 6%. An exception is made only for parents raising disabled children, Russians from regions with a low volume of construction or with individual construction programs, as well as for families from small towns (with a population of up to 50 thousand people). As a result, interest in family mortgages was lost the most in the Leningrad Region: there, Russian demand fell more than twice in a month (by 56.1%). In St. Petersburg, the decline reached 37.6%, and in Moscow — 28.1%.
Some real estate market experts are already trying to compare what is happening with the events of the 2008 and 1998 crises and are seriously concerned about the mass bankruptcy of developers. However, most analysts argue that it is incorrect to draw such parallels. Nevertheless, according to preliminary results for July, primary housing sales have decreased by 50%. «On the one hand, this was influenced by the end of the preferential mortgage at 8%, changes in the issuance of family and IT programs, on the other hand, we should not forget that June this year turned out to be a rush month, many developers were able to implement sales plans for 2-3 months in advance,» says Rustam Azizov, Director of Mortgage Sales and Implementation of Financial Instruments at A101 Group. Comparing the current situation with the crises of 1998 and 2008 is not entirely correct: the law works differently now. At the moment, 98% of housing is already being built with the involvement of project financing. Equity holders are protected by escrow accounts, and banks are interested in the completion of the projects. What is happening today is not a crisis, but a natural reaction of the economy to the previous course. «We do not expect a series of bankruptcies, but the absorption of small and medium-sized players, especially in the regions, by large federal structures is quite possible,» said Vladimir Shchekin, founder of the Rodina group.
Experts have different opinions on whether the drop in demand will affect the reduction in the cost of apartments. “With project financing, the market reacts to a decrease in demand by reducing the rate of launching new projects, and not by reducing prices,” says Kirill Kholopik, head of the ERZ RF portal. But there is another point of view. “A decrease in demand, including mortgage demand, will cool the market, which is overheated today: over the past 4 years, against the backdrop of affordable preferential mortgages, apartments have doubled in price,” recalls Oleg Repchenko, head of the analytical center “Real Estate Market Indicators”. “Prices for new buildings should gradually roll back down.” True, the reduction will be differentiated depending on the property and, most likely, veiled under the guise of discounts and promotions like “Free Parking Space,” when developers offer more “goods” for the same money. Plus, new projects will be released at prices lower than the current ones, the analyst noted.
Experts also disagreed about advice to Russians in resolving the “housing issue.” “I would not recommend taking a mortgage at 18-20%,” says Denis Astafiev, founder of the investment company SharesPro. “It’s better to put the available funds on a deposit at a high interest rate: now banks offer rates of up to 21%.” If people do not have their own home, it is better to rent an apartment, covering rental payments with interest from the deposit, the specialist advised. According to Ruslan Syrtsov, managing director of Metrium, the best option for those who do not meet the parameters of preferential programs is to apply for a tranche or letter of credit mortgage. These types of loans involve nominal payments in the first years of payments, and later the loan can be refinanced profitably after market mortgage rates go down. As Maxim Kolyadov, head of work with individuals at Insurance Broker AMsec24, pointed out, it is expected that in 2025 the real estate market will experience a “thaw” and it will be possible to see the rate on mortgage programs 2-3% lower than now.