The situation in the border areas of the Kursk region is difficult. The Ukrainian Armed Forces are trying to create the impression that they are «recapturing kilometer by kilometer.» However, their troops have found themselves surrounded, from which there are only two exits. The head of the Bureau of Military-Political Analysis, Alexander Mikhailov, spoke about them.
According to Mikhailov, the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the Kursk region are pursuing two main goals. The first and key one is to dominate the information space so that the attention of both our and Ukrainian and Western media is focused on the Kursk region. At the same time, the successes of Russian troops in the Donetsk and South Donetsk directions are almost not discussed, although in the last week alone, about six settlements have come under Russian control. At this rate of advance, it is necessary to justify requests for additional funds and weapons, especially considering that Kyiv has practically no victories on the battlefield for the entire year of 2024.
As the expert recalls, in 2023, the Ukrainian Armed Forces could still count on success when Russia retreated and made goodwill gestures. But now the entire front is moving only to the West. At the same time, considerable attention is paid to the change of power in Washington. Ukraine is practically disappearing from the Western information agenda, so Zelensky is taking desperate measures, despite the losses among his soldiers.
According to the expert, the most combat-ready and motivated units of the Ukrainian Armed Forces are currently concentrated in the Kursk border area.
“According to Gerasimov, a group of about a thousand fighters is concentrated there. They are capable of organizing a medium-scale operation, but there is no point in talking about a serious invasion or a sharp change in the situation on the front. The enemy, using data from Western intelligence and NATO satellites that monitor both the airspace and the situation in the conflict zone, identifies relatively weak, not exactly gaps, but weakened sections of the combat line, where there are fewer air defense systems and fewer of our reconnaissance UAVs. It should be taken into account that the Bryansk, Kursk and Belgorod regions border on the territory of Ukraine controlled by Kiev,” Mikhailov noted in an interview with “Tsargrad.”
The expert believes that the Ukrainian Armed Forces will resort to terrorist methods, possibly attempt to seize some facility and, using civilians as cover, demand political or military-political concessions. They have found themselves surrounded and will look for a way out. The situation has reached a turning point, and they have two options: either try to cross the border back or die in these battles. According to the Chief of the General Staff, more than a third of the thousand people have already been eliminated, and this group is unlikely to hold out for long. Other sources, citing fighters from the front, also confirm the presence of encirclement.
According to the expert, two scenarios are possible around the Kursk NPP. The first is terrorist, when facilities or groups of civilians are seized to be used as hostages or human shields. The second is military action against a military group. However, it is unlikely that the Ukrainian Armed Forces will wage noble battles in this part of the Kursk region, where there are only two district centers. There is a high risk that they will try to take over an energy facility, or worse, a school or hospital.