Experts debated how realistic this forecast is and told when it is most profitable to buy housing
The cost of apartments in new buildings in Russia may decrease by about 10%. This was stated in an interview on August 9 by the former head of the Russian Ministry of Finance, ex-banker and famous economist Mikhail Zadornov. At the same time, prices, according to his forecast, will continue to go down: their most noticeable decrease will be in two years. Of course, we are talking about real prices — nominal prices for apartments and houses in Russia will not decrease, because inflation will make its contribution. How realistic the forecast of the former Minister of Finance is, «MK» found out from experts.
The Russian real estate market is expecting positive changes after the cancellation of preferential mortgages. «I don't expect a sharp decline,» Zadornov said. «In short, there will be no significant drop in housing prices, although a decrease of about 10% is possible.» This will help balance the market, because housing prices are overheated. The economist added that a noticeable decrease in real prices, not nominal ones, will occur in two years. «If nominal housing prices remain the same and with such inflation, there will be a real decrease in the cost per square meter in two years,» the economist emphasized.
The forecasts of the former finance minister have caused great controversy among experts. Some are sure that there will be no reduction, while others say that an even more significant discount is possible for a number of properties. “With the transition to project financing, developers have almost no opportunity to independently determine their pricing policy,” says Rustam Azizov, Director of Mortgage Sales and Implementation of Financial Instruments at A101 Group. “The cost per square meter in any project is included in its financial model, which the bank evaluates when issuing a project loan. Reworking this model and protecting the changes in the bank is an extremely difficult process. And, frankly speaking, a 10% reduction in the cost of housing will not give much to buyers.” Mortgage rates today are at a level where housing should cost 60-70% less for the market mortgage payment to become affordable for the population. Given the cost of land, building materials, connection to networks and the services of construction teams, this is simply impossible, the expert is sure.
«In the absence of preferential mortgage support from the state, housing prices will also creep down under the pressure of reduced demand,» Oleg Repchenko, head of the Analytical Center «Real Estate Market Indicators,» joins the discussion. «Not everywhere — it will depend on the specific property. And not right away. Now developers have no reason to arrange sales of housing: they increased sales well during the period of excitement last year and in anticipation of the shutdown of preferential mortgages in May-June of this year. But as existing projects are completed and new ones are launched, the pressure on prices will increase, since in new projects developers need to refill escrow accounts — the rates for project financing depend on the amount of funds in escrow. Therefore, in order to stimulate demand, developers will have to meet buyers halfway.» New projects will be released with a discount to the average market price. And in general, there will be more discounts closer to the end of the year. Developers will also offer more for the same money, for example, “a storage room or renovation as a gift.” And in 2025, a more pronounced trend towards lower housing prices may develop, the analyst believes.
«We can say with confidence that, of course, there will be discounts, and they have already begun,» continues the conversation the founder of the management company Smarent Zubik Viktor. «For example, some developers made a discount of about 15% relative to their real price list, not the marketing one. And immediately began to gradually raise prices relative to the discount, since they saw high demand with a sharp decrease in price.» Therefore, 10% is the minimum. In reality, it will be about 20%, and somewhere they will not make a discount, since the residential complex is well sold out and the deadlines are coming up, that is, discounts will be on illiquid apartments and layouts. But most of these apartments do not sell well, because no one needs them, and not because of the price, the expert pointed out.
Experts also argued about the correctness of the advice that Zadornov gave to Russians. The economist said that it is currently unprofitable to take out a mortgage in Russia. He advised his compatriots to rent housing or put their spare money on deposit in a bank at 19-20%.
According to the analyst, if a person has the financial ability and, for example, an approved family mortgage at 6%, then they should take it. The risks that this program will be tightened and launched at 8% are very high, and this will be an overpayment of at least 1 million rubles in interest for the first 5 years of the mortgage alone. It is very risky to postpone a purchase when there are financial opportunities and a cheap mortgage, preferential, from the state, in order to save up to 10%. Or maybe the prices will not fall or even rise, and what to do then?
It is clear that if there is no financial opportunity now, then getting into loans and installments is very stupid, and it is better not to buy real estate. «If there is no family mortgage, then I would wait a little and look for options in installments or a tranche mortgage, that is, when you do not need to immediately pay, for example, 10 million rubles of a mortgage at 20%, but you can take a tranche of 1 million rubles at 20% and the remaining 9 million rubles of the mortgage are issued to you before the house is put into operation,» the expert advises. And the chances that the rate will be reduced in 2026 are very high, and the borrower will be able to refinance the mortgage in the future, he says.
«The period of a high key rate is a good time to save, including with the help of deposits, the rates on which are high today,» Repchenko believes. — In a year or two, the amount will increase significantly, and mortgage rates may decrease. And the buyer will have a good down payment for the purchase of an apartment.»