Experts explained what caused such a collapse in real estate lending and how it will affect the affordability of housing
In July, the volume of issued mortgages in our country decreased three times compared to June. This was reported by analysts of the United Credit Bureau.
In monetary terms, the volume of issued housing loans in July decreased by 65% compared to June 2024 and by 57% compared to the figures for July last year. The figures reached the values of 2020, when coronavirus restrictions were in effect in Russia. MK asked experts what this sharp slowdown in housing lending will mean for the real estate market.
In July, 76.5 thousand housing loans were issued by banks in Russia, which is 2.3 times less than in June. In monetary terms, the decline was even more noticeable. In July, mortgages were issued for 292 billion rubles — the volume of loans for the month decreased by 2.9 times. Researchers note that such figures can only be compared with June 2020, but then there were restrictions due to the pandemic, and the market was not in the best shape. «The sharp drop is caused by the effect of a high comparison base,» says Olga Guseva, CEO of Key Capital. — In June, a large volume of funds was issued for the purchase of housing, which is unusual for this month: about 800 billion rubles. In the previous five years, banks usually issued about 390 billion rubles in June. That is, this year the volume of issuance was twice as high as the normal value for June, which is why the decline was so large.»
It is obvious that there will be no return to the record levels of mortgage issuance in 2023. The preferential mortgage, which ended on July 1, provided about 40% of the loans issued in the country. The extended family mortgage provided the same amount. The number and volume of loans issued will decrease, but the situation will definitely not become critical. «Developers will still be able to fulfill their obligations under project financing, although they will have to sacrifice marginality and set large discounts, especially in comfort and business class projects,» says Ruslan Syrtsov, Managing Director of Metrium. «As a result, the rate of new projects entering the market may temporarily decrease.»
Family mortgages have undergone changes, which has reduced the volume of transactions under this program by 15-20%. IT mortgages have stopped working in the Moscow and St. Petersburg markets: this has cut off another 20% of the market. «In fact, only standard mortgages with prohibitive rates remain accessible to all categories of citizens,» believes Alexey Novikov, director of the mortgage lending department at Est-a-Tet. The slowdown in issuance will affect purchasing power. More than 75% of all transactions in the Moscow region involved mortgage loans, and under current programs, monthly payments are quite large. «The cost of apartments will not fall much: construction is currently being carried out on the principle of project financing, and developers must fulfill their obligations to the lending bank,» warns Novikov. Since June, there has been a price correction of approximately 2-3%, but overall this does not make a difference to the market.
According to Guseva, developers are now not as dependent on the current activity of buyers as they were before the transition to project financing. Bank credit lines allow developers to «wait out» a bad market situation, so a noticeable reduction in prices is possible only within the framework of individual promotions, projects, and when selling «leftovers».
«A stage of certain stabilization of housing costs is coming, with some leveling of the price per square meter in properties that have less favorable consumer characteristics,» notes Tatyana Boeva, Head of the Mortgage Lending Department at Granel Group of Companies. «Developers will offer clients more special programs with additional benefits, in which a limited pool of apartments participate. As a result, buyers receive an expanded choice of lots, including in terms of cost. However, the price level for primary housing will generally remain the same.» The cost of materials and work is unlikely to contribute to a reduction in the price per square meter.
For most Russians, the reduced availability of mortgages makes buying a home less and less realistic. According to Denis Astafyev, founder of the investment company SharesPro, this may lead to an increase in demand for rent, which, in turn, will cause an increase in rental rates. In the long term, this situation may lead to a decrease in the availability of housing, especially for young families and people with low incomes, the expert warned.