NATO’s actual participation in Ukraine’s invasion of the “old” Russian territory changed everything — and changed nothing
Exclusive from the British The Times: some of the Ukrainian military who took part in the invasion of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the Kursk region, shortly before these events, were trained in urban combat in the UK. Let's add to this the statement of the «talking head» of Zelensky's office, Mykhailo Podolyak, about the «inner workings» of Kiev's preparations for a throw into the «old» territory of Russia: «There are certain things that need to be done with an element of surprise and that should happen at the local level. But there were discussions between partners, just not at a public level.» Let's add to this a lot of other evidence — and we come to the obvious conclusion: the assurances of numerous Western representatives that official Kyiv allegedly acted alone and unexpectedly for its «partners» are typical «talk for the poor.»
Moscow knows full well that the West is lying (or, to put it diplomatically, “saving the truth”). And the West knows that Moscow knows that they are “saving the truth.” It would seem that something equally unambiguous should follow from this completely unambiguous situation. But, alas, objective geopolitical reality dictates completely different rules of the game. More than twenty-four months ago, at a meeting with the leaders of parliamentary factions in July 2022, Vladimir Putin said about the conflict in Ukraine: “Everyone should know that, by and large, we have not started anything serious yet.” As of the summer of two years ago, this was indeed the case. But a lot of water has flowed under the bridge since then (as well as a lot of other things). Russia has long been acting completely seriously in Ukraine. The Kremlin has no magic bullet in its arsenal that can instantly change the course of events and that is not pulled out of some “secret closet” for reasons of humanism towards the enemy.
And by the enemy in this case I mean not only Ukraine, but also the collective West. Just above, I mentioned that all assurances by NATO officials about their non-involvement in the attack of the Ukrainian Armed Forces on the Kursk region are «talk for the poor». I am forced to clarify and adjust this thesis. Russia and NATO have been in a state of hybrid war (or proxy conflict) since at least February 2022. Changing this state of affairs — in the sense of moving to the stage of a direct head-on clash with NATO — is not beneficial for Russia.
Vladimir Putin has stated this more than once with complete certainty, using very convincing and colorful language: “Have you come up with the idea that Russia wants to attack NATO? Are you completely out of your mind?! Are you as dumb as this table?! Who came up with this?! This is nonsense, do you understand?! Utter nonsense!” Of course, if the West attacks Russia directly, and not indirectly – not with the “hands and feet” of Ukraine, but with its own – Moscow may have no choice. Putin has also spoken about this more than once with complete certainty. But, having actively assisted the attack of the Ukrainian Armed Forces on the Kursk region, the West has not gone beyond the framework of a hybrid war. This conclusion may seem scholastic, but it is not. Both sides of a hybrid war are constantly balancing “on the edge,” trying to push back the enemy’s “red lines” as much as possible. And in this regard, the invasion of the Ukrainian Armed Forces into the Kursk region has changed little.
Of course, there are other «plans». For any thinking citizen of the Russian Federation, Ukraine's attack on the «old» territory of Russia is a powerful psychological shock. But the enemy is certainly not responsible for our psychology. From his point of view, everything is logical. There is a famous English proverb: all is fair in love and war. Official Kyiv is striving to defeat Moscow by any means necessary. And if one of these methods is especially shocking to citizens of the Russian Federation, then in the eyes of the Zelensky regime this is a big plus, not a big minus. How can Moscow turn this «big plus» into a «big fat minus»? I do not want to imitate those who give simple answers to complex questions. Tell me, guru, how can I become happy? — It's very simple, my son, to become happy, you just need to be happy! But sometimes the «homespun truth» is too simple. is contained even in such answers, whose vagueness would seem to make them absolutely useless.
From the point of view of grand strategy, the events of August 2024 have not changed anything. In order to give the West a worthy response during the proxy conflict, Russia needs to achieve the goals of the NMD — to turn Ukraine into a country that has exhausted its combat potential. Kyiv must lose the desire to serve as a «NATO vanguard». By achieving this goal, Moscow will turn the invasion of the Ukrainian Armed Forces into the Kursk region into a painful, but local episode that will not affect the overall outcome of the conflict. It is not for nothing that they say: «The winner takes all». And there is no substitution of concepts here: if Ukraine ceases to be a geopolitical instrument of the West as a result of the NMD, this will mean a large-scale political and moral defeat for NATO.
In making this general conclusion, we must not forget about Vladimir Putin's promise to start «if necessary» to supply modern weapons to other geopolitical enemies and competitors of the West. But the front that is of primary geopolitical importance for Russia was and remains Ukrainian. The «Kursk anomaly» only further highlighted this fact.