In the “den” called the White House there is now only one bear left
“Bread and circuses” — as has been known since the first century BC with the light hand of the great satirist Juvenal, it is in providing the population with these two types of resources that the main responsibility of a good government consists. Over the past four-plus years, everything has been fine with the metaphorical “bread” in Russia: the workaholism and managerial talents of Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin have actively helped the country pass through such difficult trials as a pandemic and a Western sanctions hurricane relatively painlessly. And when the time came for the prime minister to be reconfirmed for a well-deserved second term, it was the turn of the spectacle.
“We want the curator of industry to also be the first deputy prime minister!” — one parliamentary faction asks tearfully. The prime minister promises to think and consult with the president. And bingo — on the list of government members sent to the Duma for approval is industry curator Denis Manturov, who has been promoted to the level of first deputy prime minister. “We want our fellow party member to be the Minister of Sports!” — asks another parliamentary faction. And again a hit: it is proposed to move LDPR alumnus Mikhail Degtyarev on the presidential list from the office of the governor of the Khabarovsk Territory to the ancient mansion of the Russian Ministry of Sports on Kazakova Street in Moscow.
No knots, no hitches, no scandalous squiggles, such as those that took place twenty-five years ago, when, in the process of forming the new government of the Russian Federation, President Yeltsin promised Duma Speaker Seleznev to send one candidate for the post of prime minister (Nikolai Aksenenko), but sent a completely different one (Sergei Stepashin). Things are completely different in May 2024 than they were in May 1999. In May 2024, everything is perfect and perfect. Of course, in this perfection lies its main flaw (forgive me for my quibbles): in real life, everything does not go so smoothly. But let's not be picky. Let's talk better about the fact that thanks to the “independent initiatives” of the Duma factions, the process of forming a new cabinet of ministers was overshadowed.
“Two bears cannot live in the same den,” says Russian folk wisdom. They probably don't actually live in the wild. But they still live in political “nature” — at least if the President of the Russian Federation orders them to do so. I stop speaking in riddles and metaphors. The appointment of Mishustin as prime minister in January 2020 was a daring and unexpected political move on Putin’s part. But GDP would not be GDP if, having made a daring and unexpected political move, he had not hedged his bets. At that time, the president did not yet know Mishustin very well. Therefore, his first deputy was assigned to a person very understandable and well known to Putin: presidential assistant for economic issues Andrei Belousov.
Thus, a system of checks and balances was created in the White House, within which it was quite difficult for the prime minister to work. His first deputy, however, too. I spoke with Andrei Belousov a couple of times during interviews. And he left me with the impression of an extremely gentle and intelligent person. But, as follows from information from other sources, Belousov’s “softness” is only part of his external interface. In reality, he is a very tough political player, accustomed to putting pressure on his opponents and not hesitating to show off his direct approach to the president. Only they themselves know all the details of how a person with such a set of characteristics happened to work as the first deputy of Mishustin — an extremely tough leader who is not inclined to mess with his subordinates. But it is clear that this management partnership has not been easy.
Let's add to this the fact that Mishustin and Belousov were and remain largely ideological opponents. To simplify everything to the point of caricature, the Prime Minister is a supporter of the classic Ministry of Finance school of thought: money does not solve all problems. We need to improve efficiency! And his now former first deputy believed that money should not passively “lie in a box”, but actively work: in order to start the economy, you need to spend, spend and spend again. The pandemic and the Great Patriotic War have rendered these ideological differences largely irrelevant. Objective reality has forced our White House to spend, spend, and spend some more. But we can assume that this did not make Belousov a more comfortable subordinate for the prime minister.
But here’s what else we can assume with no less confidence: Andrei Belousov’s managerial “legacy” — overseeing the macroeconomic sphere and finance — almost completely passed to the prime minister. The official new curator of the economy is Deputy Prime Minister for Fuel and Energy Alexander Novak, who has expanded the scope of his responsibility. But, firstly, Novak is also a “chick of Kudrin’s nest”, a native of the Ministry of Finance. Secondly, supervision of the fuel and energy complex is a job that requires full workload and does not allow distractions. Thirdly, the first deputy prime minister and the “simple” deputy prime minister are figures with completely different managerial weight.
Of course, in the place of the former first deputy prime minister Belousov, another holder of such a position with direct access to the president emerged same rank — Denis Manturov. Manturov's high status was pointedly emphasized by the fact that during the process of forming a new government, he was awarded a personal audience with Putin shown on TV. But Manturov has his own clearly defined area of responsibility — industry and the military-industrial complex — into which the prime minister has no particular reason to get involved. Another fact indicating the increase in the political apparatus weight of the head of government: his alter ego and right hand, Deputy Prime Minister and White House Chief of Staff Dmitry Grigorenko, has seriously expanded his area of responsibility. Now he officially also oversees information technology and financial policy — areas that are of particular interest to the Prime Minister.
The overall result in one sentence: the new cabinet of ministers turned out to be even more Mishustin-like than the previous one.