“The main cause of inflation is monopolistic pricing”
One of the main issues of the Financial Congress, which completed its work in St. Petersburg, was the growing inflation in the country. According to preliminary data as of July 1, in annual terms it is 9.13%. However, the Central Bank is confident that this is the peak value and that inflation will then decline. But independent experts are mostly confident of the opposite: prices will continue to rise, and inflation at the end of the year will definitely be double-digit.
An optimistic point of view was expressed on the sidelines of the congress by the director of the monetary policy department of the Central Bank, Kirill Tremasov. According to him, annual inflation at its peak level will not reach double-digit values: “My personal opinion – this is very unlikely.»
While there are no official data from Rosstat on annual inflation for June yet, they are expected any day now. However, calculations based on data from the statistics department as of July 1 show that inflation has risen to at least 9.13%. And in the review of the Ministry of Economic Development “On the current price situation” there is an even more severe assessment — 9.22%.
However, tenths after 3% are no longer important. It is appropriate to remind here that for many months, representatives of the Central Bank have been assuring the public that just a little more and inflation will go back. And by the end of the year we will see its value at 4-4.5%. Now they prefer not to remember these figures, which are completely divorced from reality.
Central Bank analysts believe that the July 9% with kopecks is the peak of annual inflation, and it will not grow further. But it will decrease. The Central Bank has not yet decided to what level. Judging by some reservations of its leaders at the Financial Congress, this will be announced on July 25-26, after the announcement of the nearest decision of the Central Bank on the key rate.
But the fact that July – This is the long-awaited peak in price growth, it’s hard to believe. First of all because this July – This is the month when housing and communal services tariffs are raised throughout the country by an average of 10%. And Russians will receive new vouchers with increased tariffs only in August, and without any doubt, they will give an additional impetus to inflation.
In addition, it is known from previous years that inflation accelerates, gaining momentum just by the end of the year. When Russians receive bonuses and progressives, when they buy potatoes and beets for the winter. When, finally, they prepare to celebrate the New Year…
In general, despite the promises of officials, it is much easier to believe that in the near future inflation will conquer a new peak and will be measured in double digits. “MK” decided to find out the validity of all these forecasts and assumptions from an expert.
— we asked financial analyst, candidate of economic sciences Mikhail Belyaev.
— It won’t be below 10% for sure. There is simply no reason for it to begin to decline by the end of the year or at least to be fixed at today’s level.
— The main one is – monopolistic pricing. It has not gone away and continues to operate.
The second factor – tight monetary policy. The Central Bank is in a theoretical error.
— The fact that inflation – This is a consequence of the excess money supply in circulation. In fact, inflation does not necessarily occur due to excess money. Any increase in prices is called inflation. Here we smoothly move on to the first factor – monopolization of the market, trade sphere.
The classical concept of supply and demand does not exist today; it died 50 years ago. Today there is a monopolistic market, not only in Russia, but in almost all countries. But antimonopoly agencies have been created there, very powerful and with great powers. They prevent the arbitrariness of monopolies.
For monopolies, the main thing is – This is an increase in profits, and they increase it due to rising prices for their products. And they use any excuse for this. The main thing is that there is information noise. Either the ruble has shaken, or transport prices have risen…
— Now there are great hopes that inflation will be brought down to some extent by the seasonal reduction in price of vegetables. But producers and trade will probably remember that there were frosts in May, then an abnormal heat wave in July. And what if we buy the old crop at the same prices, then why should the new crop, grown with such difficulty, cost less?
I repeat: the main cause of inflation is monopolistic pricing. Which we are not fighting in any way.
— No. This doesn't change anything at all.
— Where can this 4% come from? These are empty declarations, not supported by any arguments. How can we reduce inflation using the same tools that are causing inflation to accelerate this year?
— Most likely. And in the best case scenario, it will remain the same. But the Russians are preparing for a rate increase. Everywhere they say that there are no conditions for its reduction. And they shouldn’t exist. There are signs that the Central Bank's tight monetary policy has not justified itself in the fight against inflation. In fact, inflation has not decreased for a year. This means, on the contrary, we need to loosen the screws and allow the economy to work. Then new goods will appear and prices will begin to decline. With a high key rate and unaffordable loans, this is impossible.