Erdogan does not want to lose a strategically important partner.
Ankara is trying not to allow Turkey's support for Ukraine to somehow affect its relations with Russia. Hence all these aspirations of intermediary services, mediation and shuttle diplomacy, reports the Chronicle.info with reference to TSN.
The talks between the Ministers of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine and Russia in Turkish Antalya on Thursday, March 10, clearly demonstrated two things:
- Russia's consent to open another channel for communication, but it is not yet clear why, because Putin did not give consent to the announcement of a truce for 24 hours and the opening of humanitarian corridors to and from Mariupol;
- Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's attempts to play a peacemaker — a mediator between Ukraine and Russia — to turn Turkey into a second «Minsk».
According to Evgenia Gaber, senior analyst at the Center for Modern Turkey Studies, this is the position of official Ankara there are several reasons.
First, there is a desire to prevent Turkey's support for Ukraine from affecting its relations with Russia in any way. Hence all these aspirations of intermediary services, mediation and shuttle diplomacy. It is important for Erdogan to show himself as an active regional player, an influential state leader capable of bringing conflicting parties to the negotiating table.
Secondly, many Turks are, if not pro-Russian, then definitely anti-American and against the West. There is some common understanding in Turkey that in this war the blame lies with NATO, the West and the alleged provocation of Russia for such hostile actions.
Thirdly, Turkey highly dependent on Russia in terms of gas supplies and economically. Russia for Turkey is a large market for the sale of goods, tourists regularly replenishing the Turkish budget, and passenger traffic in general, including for filling the world's largest newly built Istanbul Airport.
Fourthly, During a recent telephone conversation between Erdogan and Putin, according to sources associated with Erdogan and the ruling party, it was also about the fact that in mutual settlements with Russia to switch to the ruble, gold or other currencies. The idea is not new, it sounded 5-7 years ago. And in general, whenever Turkey has problems with the United States, it returns to the idea of switching to the national currency in trade with Russia, China or other regional countries.
Fifth, Turkey closed the Bosphorus and the Dardanelles for the passage of Russian warships. And there are also questions of Syria. Indeed, on the one hand, Russian ships cannot enter the Black Sea; on the other hand, they cannot leave the Black Sea in order to provide logistical support to the Syrian forces and Russian forces in Syria from the occupied Crimea. Therefore, for Turkey, it is also a safety net if Russia decides to use this leverage to destroy the situation in Syria and divert attention from Ukraine.
Therefore, according to Evgenia Gaber, this is an interesting situation. On the one hand, Ukraine has support Turkey in non-recognition of the occupation of Crimea and the self-proclaimed «DPR»/»LPR». Ankara calls for an end to the war as soon as possible, supplies Bayraktar drones to Ukraine and closes the straits for the passage of Russian warships. On the other hand, Turkey does not join any economic sanctions against Russia and has not closed its airspace to Russian aircraft.
«Preserving an independent Ukraine is one of Turkey's main interests. If Ukraine falls, if Russia is able to occupy, for example, the southern coast of Ukraine, or partially Ukraine itself, this will mean a radical change in the balance of power in the region in favor of Russia, which is not beneficial to Turkey. But Turkey seeks to maintain working relations with the Russian Federation. This does not mean that Turkey supports Russia's aggression against Ukraine. In several statements, the phrase was voiced that the attack and war of Russia against Ukraine is unacceptable for Turkey. But for the most part, even the wording is very, very careful», explains TSN.ua Evgenia Gaber.
According to the analyst, in negotiations with Russia, Turkey is also trying to solve purely applied problems: with regard to Turkish aircraft that remained in Ukraine and could not return to Turkey before the start of the war; ships with sunflower oil and other goods that entered the Black Sea and could not get to Ukrainian ports due to the blockade of Russia and return back, unloading them; return of Turkish students who are in Ukraine to Turkey; Turkish investments in the Ukrainian economy (communications, bridges, roads) — what to do with the Turkish machinery and equipment left here.
Indeed, the shortage of sunflower oil has been especially acute in Turkey. The media circulated photos of people standing in long lines and sweeping sunflower oil from the shelves. Although the government is trying to reassure people, assuring that there is no shortage of butter, people in a panic are still sweeping goods from store shelves. But then the authorities still banned the export of butter and margarine from the country.
Ukraine provides 15% of sunflower oil imports to Turkey. Vessels with goods on board cannot yet pass from the Sea of Azov to the Black Sea, which fuels panic and shortages. But the problem is really deeper than it seems.
First, Among all food products, sunflower oil imports to Turkey rank third in terms of volume. The first is wheat, which enters the country from Ukraine and Russia. But there is also a huge question about supplies from Russia due to the incomprehensibility of the calculations.
Secondly, shortage of sunflower oil is now observed all over the world. Due to the Russian attack on Ukraine, sunflower processing and oil exports have stopped. In Argentina, which after Ukraine, Russia and the EU is the fourth producer of sunflower oil, prices per ton increased by $500-600.
Thirdly, even if Russia offers its own volumes of sunflower oil oil for export, this will not help her, because foreign companies that own ships do not want to work with Putin's bloody regime. Therefore, either the world will do everything in its power to overthrow Putin, or we will all face a shortage of not only sunflower oil, but also wheat, and, as a result, a rise in the price of bread.