GENERICO.ruEconomicsThe expert explained why Ukrainians should not count on cheap fuel

The expert explained why Ukrainians should not count on cheap fuel

Retail fuel will be limited.

« Previously, there were many «entry points» fuel, and now – only the western border of the country. The price of state regulation is adequate for the western regions, and bringing fuel to the central regions costs plus 2 UAH. per liter», Khronika.info reports with reference to Focus.

Statements that Ukraine has improved fuel supplies and has enough of everything is not true. I don’t know where the Ministry of Economy got the figures about 10,000 tons that cross the border every day.

Bases are virtually all dry. There are no stocks. If there were supplies, then the fuel would be on sale somewhere. Let not at gas stations, where state regulation, but in wholesale it would be. But there is no replenishment of the wholesale market, it is inflated to the sky: prices start from 42 UAH, if you are very lucky, you can find 41 UAH. And so in some places there are 43-44 UAH, and in the east and 46 UAH per liter.

The situation with retail is worse due to state regulation. Naturally, no one will sell even premium fuel at retail for UAH 39.50. And ordinary fuel can be sold only for 37.4 UAH. Therefore, zeros on the stele will remain for a long time.

With gasoline, everything is complicated by the fact that it is more difficult to import than diesel. It comes as a more dangerous product, it requires a higher ADR class (Accord dangereuses route). Therefore, its import will be even more difficult than with diesel. It's just that we still have some internal remnants.

Therefore, there will definitely not be any improvement in April. And in the first half of May, the situation will also be difficult. Retail fuel will be limited.

The authorities are not going to weaken state regulation. And state regulation sets a single price throughout the country. But now this is nonsense, in principle this cannot happen

Earlier, before a full-scale war, we could buy Russian fuel in Izyum, Belarusian in Korosten, in Odessa and Nikolaev – sometimes Greek, sometimes Italian, in Lvov – Lithuanian Orlen. Logistics was all over the country.

Right now we can only buy at the western border. In my opinion, even a child understands that if we buy at one point, then it will be much more expensive to deliver from Lviv to Sumy than to Ternopil.

Therefore, the very principle of state regulation, the very basis is wrong – I'm not talking about numbers and formula. Because we only ship from the western border. Everyone knows this, but they stubbornly refuse to admit this fact.

There must be some kind of ranking. In the eastern regions, it should be possible to sell fuel at a higher price than in the western regions.

From the western point – conditionally, Krakovets or Rava-Russkaya – and to the eastern point – Sumy, Pokrovsk, Pavlograd – the length of the route is 1200 km. In two directions – 2400 km. Let's take the middle, it will be about 1800 km.

Previously, before a full-scale war, a fuel truck did not travel more than 300 km in one direction. Because there was circular logistics. For example, it was possible to come to Kirovograd from Odessa. And the longest distance to the center of Ukraine was 300 km. Now this distance is from 800 to 1000 km. If this transport shoulder is translated into the cost of a kilometer, this is an additional UAH 2 per liter of fuel.

Thus, the real price of fuel for gas stations today is state regulation plus UAH 2 for logistics.

And so we bring fuel from Europe directly to gas stations. On the way, a lot of problems arise: we are fined, because in Ukraine the regime of work and rest has never been observed; questions to rubber, technical condition of cars. Different loading standards: Europe loads the bottom loading, Ukraine – the top one. The drivers do not have international passports because they used to work in Ukraine. It is necessary to deal with foreign currency accounts, buying foreign currency on the interbank market.

It is extremely difficult to establish rhythmic deliveries. Naturally, we will not sell at a price lower than our cost. It's not even about altruism. You can sell below cost – and tomorrow you will run out of working capital. Why sell cheaper? There are no subsidies. It is impossible to get a loan from a bank to replenish working capital.

Therefore, the chains sell fuel by bank transfer, by coupons. This is not a stele; state regulation does not apply to such transactions. This is a completely different situation: coupons can be bought and resold, there may be ten intermediaries. You can call the representative office, conclude an agreement – this will be the purchase of fuel for 41-42 UAH, as agreed.

For example, sometimes there are zeros on the steles, and sometimes – «BN», cashless payment. Avias has a working price of 42 UAH; Amic traded 40.1 UAH. And this is above state regulation.

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