MOSCOW, July 21, Elena Lykova.Significant growth of the dollar in the current environment is unlikely, the interviewed analysts agree. At the same time, some of the experts believe that the American currency may rise above 100 rubles by the end of the year, but this will not happen in the fall, while others are sure that the dollar at 120 rubles is possible only during the global financial crisis.
«»The growth of the dollar to 120 rubles in the current conditions seems unlikely, and such a significant weakening of the ruble will require the implementation of certain risks. First of all, they include the onset of a full-fledged financial crisis in developed countries. So far, the market is only 14% likely to raise the US Federal Reserve rate this year. However, the labor market in the US remains overheated, and inflation may still be more stable than expected,» said a senior analyst at the bank's financial markets operations department. Petersburg» Victor Grigoriev.
In this regard, the US regulator may continue the cycle of tightening monetary policy after the meeting next week, which can reveal new problems in the banking sector and, in turn, lead to a recession. In this case, prices on the world commodity market will fall, which will lead to a decrease in Russian exports, increasing pressure on the ruble, he notes.
«Nevertheless, the likelihood of such a scenario is seen as low so far — a slowdown in economic growth is expected in a number of countries, but this will not mean the onset of a full-scale recession. In particular, the head of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation, Elvira Nabiullina, noted at SPIEF that the scenario of the global economic crisis did not materialize. Under the current conditions, high levels of volatility can be observed in the foreign exchange market, but the growth of the dollar-ruble rate to 120 rubles still looks more like a stress scenario,» he is sure.
One hundred rubles each dollar
«In the baseline forecast, the exchange rate weakens until the end of the year, but its value will only slightly exceed 100 rubles per US dollar before the New Year. In autumn, the exchange rate is unlikely to weaken so much. And for such a movement, a sharp deterioration in the external situation (a drop in exports) is necessary,» said Anton Prokudin, chief macroeconomist of Ingosstrakh Investments Management Company. mingled with significant contango, he adds.
The expert believes that Russia's monetary policy in the current situation has practically no effect on the exchange rate due to restrictions on the movement of capital of non-residents.
Because the key rate of the Central Bank now has little effect on the exchange rate ny dollar-ruble pair, agrees the chief economist of Alfa-Bank Natalia Orlova.
On Thursday, in the Alfa-Investments Telegram channel, she estimated the fundamentally sound exchange rate of the ruble in the range of 80-120 rubles per dollar and indicated that the risks of a weakening of the Russian currency still remain — the rate will react both to geopolitics and to restrictions on oil production. But the rate is unlikely to consolidate at a level of more than 100 rubles per dollar, she also believes.
Later, she explained that 80-120 rubles per dollar is «not a forecast, this is an interval of a fundamentally sound rate, this is not a scenario calculation, but a calculation according to models.»
«Whether it will lead to a sharp strengthening of the ruble. An increase in the interest rate differential between Russia and the United States will support the ruble, but for a pronounced reaction of the exchange rate in the current conditions, the Central Bank needs an even sharper tightening of the monetary policy. Nevertheless, against the backdrop of the approaching tax period, the dollar-ruble rate may still try to fall below 90 rubles in the coming week,» Grigoriev said.