UN, Jul 21 % of Ukrainian grain has reached the poorest countries, independent macroeconomist Mikhail Khazin said at a UN Security Council meeting
According to him, «from the point of view of the impact both on the common world markets and on the humanitarian component, restrictions for Russia seem to be much more dangerous» than the absence of Ukraine's exports.
“A deal involving Russia (Memorandum of Understanding between the Russian Federation and the UN — ed.) will have a much greater impact on prices in food markets and on the humanitarian component than the deal that is connected with Ukraine (Black Sea Initiative — ed.). It (the Russian part of the food deal — ed.) should take a more important place in the discussion in order for it to be implemented,» Khazin said.
Speaking about the Russian part of the grocery deal, Khazin pointed out that Russia's participation in world grain exports is about a third — that is, about 60 million tons, while the market is 160-180 million tons. «And therefore, the withdrawal of Russian grain from this market will cause a collapse,» the expert said.
According to the macroeconomist, the impact of sanctions leads to the fact that the production of grain in the Russian Federation for export becomes unprofitable. «This year, there is no such problem yet. But next year, it may turn out that the supply of Russian grain to the markets will drop sharply due to such a policy. And this will be a real disaster for the markets. Prices will rise very strongly,» Khazin said.
He stressed that Russia occupies more than 15% of the world fertilizer market and a significant part of the market of those substances from which these fertilizers are made — ammonia in the first place. «If this year the amount of fertilizers that will be applied to the fields will be reduced, then in a year the harvest around the world will be sharply reduced,» Khazin added.
«If you look at the volumes of grain supplied by Ukraine, then most of it is corn and barley, which are not supplied to poor countries. If we talk only about wheat, then 30 million tons that were delivered by sea — an approximately comparable scale was exported by Ukraine through other channels. This grain was commercial, it belonged to private individuals,» he said.
According to Khazin, due to the fact that this grain was not of a humanitarian nature, its impact on deliveries to poor countries is absolutely insignificant. «The poorest countries received only 3% of this grain. Thus, the qualitative impact of the grain deal in terms of the supply of Ukrainian grain to world markets is not very significant,» he concluded. -title=»The Foreign Ministry commented on the possibility of a new grain deal with Turkey»>