An expert explained the possible consequences of the food policy reform
The government is preparing a regulatory framework for converting payments for agricultural exports into rubles. According to Deputy Prime Minister Victoria Abramchenko, the implementation of such an initiative will provide a tool to protect domestic exporters and partners from countries «friendly» to Russia from «thoughtless sanctions pressure.» According to the leading expert of the Center for Political Technologies Nikita Maslennikov, the government's decision is quite reasonable and timely, since it will strengthen the Russian currency in external trade and money transactions, but the task will take a long time to complete.
— This is a completely logical decision that continues the emerging forward movement of the domestic economy. The export of natural gas from our country to some “friendly”, for example, Turkey, and some “unfriendly” states, the same EU members, has long been carried out in rubles. So why not extend the practice to food as well?
There is a certain optimism in the efficiency of paying for grain in rubles. The seriousness of intentions is evidenced by the fact that a corresponding presidential decree was announced. First of all, the initiative will affect buyers from among the «unfriendly» half. In fact, the Europeans will be given an ultimatum: if you want to buy Russian wheat, prepare rubles.
Grain contracts in the Russian currency will contribute to the promotion of the ruble in trade operations, closer payment relationships and integration with those economies whose food markets Russia is going to enter. First of all, these are the states of Asia and Africa. However, it is still quite difficult to predict the prospects and effectiveness of the current policy. In trade with many countries, Russia continues to maintain a noticeable imbalance. In particular, we trade with China to a lesser extent for rubles than for yuan. Conducting bilateral grain transactions in Russian banknotes will make it possible to somewhat smooth out such statistics.
There are similar problems with India: Moscow has accumulated too many rupees and now does not know what to spend them on. It is possible that the adoption of the Russian currency as a means of payment in payments for food will balance the flow of rupees and will get rid of their excess.
— Hard to say. The experiment with gas tariffs, first of all, was of a geopolitical, image character. Reducing the export of «blue fuel» to Europe would have occurred regardless of the currency in which the calculation was made. The decline in supplies was provoked by sanctions, forcing even those countries that were not opposed to maintaining fuel contracts with Moscow to abandon the beneficial partnership. The result was a huge amount of conflicting circumstances, so comparing the experience in the gas sector with the potential in the food sector is incorrect.
So far, no obvious and unsolvable «blind spots» are imperceptible. Already, more than half of trade transactions with many countries to which Russia sells grain are carried out in rubles. For example, about 30-40% of transactions in rubles are made even with the countries of the Caribbean. The continued strengthening of the ruble as a firm means of settling Russia, first with «friendly» and then negatively minded powers, will be a good help in the process of creating a single collective currency within the framework of the BRICS — this issue is increasingly being raised by the participants of the organization at their meetings.
— The transition to rubles is, after all, a recognition of the reality that is already taking shape: Russia is positioning itself more clearly in the global market. We have the right to insist on our opinion. Russian food exports have increased by 1.5 times over the past year. In the near future, it will be possible to assess how currency requirements will affect the development of external monetary and payment relations, as well as what infrastructure solutions will be required from the central banks of partner countries. Regulators will have to create new financial lines and open additional correspondent accounts to carry out ruble currency transactions. The work ahead will be a serious test and will require considerable time for systemic adjustment both in foreign and Russian organizations. Russia will have to modernize the structure of lending to partners, revise the tariffs for freight and other logistics services. With one stroke of the pen, it will not work to correct the existing shortcomings and overcome the obstacles that arise. Even the solution of the mentioned tasks will result in a chain of long-term, painstaking measures.
— Only in the long term. The monetary volume of grain transactions, although growing, still lags far behind financial transactions in the commodity market. Volumes and price effects of oil and grain are incomparable. Russia, one of the world's top ten food exporters, of course, can make a significant contribution to turning grain into a new influential political tool, but our country is by no means ranked first, so close cooperation with all market participants is required.