Whether to wait for the rate of 80 per dollar: experts gave an answer
During Friday trading on the Moscow Exchange, the dollar broke through the value of 91.7 rubles, updating the maximum since July 10. No one expected such a rush from the American currency, because at the end of July the period of tax settlements for exporters began, which usually inspires the ruble to strengthen its positions. Even the day before, it seemed that the dollar would end the month below 90 rubles — it dropped so noticeably by the end of the trading session on Thursday, but on Friday it won back positions. Why the domestic currency is not strengthened by traditional positive factors and whether the Russians will see the dollar again at 80 rubles, experts told MK.
“The ruble has been trading without strong movements for the last three and a half weeks (since July 5) and is in a narrow range of 90-92 per dollar, 99-102 per euro and 12.5-12.7 per yuan. We would not talk about the ruble turning towards strengthening. Rather, there is a consolidation of the national currency at these levels after 8 months of almost continuous weakening. Since the beginning of the year, the dollar has already grown by 30% — from 70 to 91 rubles per dollar.
Stabilization of the domestic currency at these levels indicates the balance of supply and demand in the market. On the one hand, the ruble is supported by rising oil prices. Over the past four weeks, Brent quotes have risen by $10, from $74 to $84 per barrel. In addition, gas and food became more expensive on world markets.
High prices for raw materials lead to the fact that Russian exporting companies increase their foreign exchange earnings. As a result, the supply of foreign currency on the Russian market is increasing, which is positive for the ruble. Recall that this week Russian exporting companies actively sold foreign exchange earnings in order to pay taxes to the budget.
On the other hand, the demand for the currency remains elevated, which does not allow the ruble to strengthen. The Russian economy is actively growing this year, economists are once again revising their forecasts in the direction of higher GDP growth. Domestic companies replace departing foreign firms, expand business, hire new people. As a result, imported goods are actively purchased by both citizens and companies and the state. In addition to the demand for foreign currency for the purchase of imports, in the summer there is a high demand for the purchase of foreign currency for foreign tourism. Russians go on vacation to Turkey, Egypt, the United Arab Emirates and other popular destinations, and there they need dollars. Finally, some companies and citizens are buying foreign currency as insurance in case of an aggravation of the geopolitical situation.
August comes next week, which is seasonally one of the most unfavorable months of the year for the ruble. According to statistics over the past 16 years (2007-2022), on average, the ruble weakened against the dollar by 2% this month.
Foreign exchange interventions will remain in favor of the ruble within the framework of the budget rule. The Ministry of Finance sells yuan daily in the amount of 1.7 billion rubles. to compensate for shortfalls in oil and gas budget revenues. In addition, from August 1, the Bank of Russia will additionally sell yuan from reserves for 2.3 billion rubles. in connection with the use of NWF funds
We expect the ruble to trade in the range of 88-94 rubles per dollar, 96-102 rubles per euro and 12.3-13.1 rubles per yuan in August.” .
“The ruble accelerated its decline on Friday evening against foreign currencies. Previously, he lost support from the end of the tax period. Investors do not take into account the factor of expensive oil, because, firstly, the impact can be noticed only after a couple of weeks due to the specifics of the market, and secondly, the situation is distorted by the presence of a sanctions “ceiling” for Urals. The fundamental background for the ruble will remain moderately negative: an important trigger in the foreign exchange market is the imbalance in supply and demand for foreign currency. Until the inflow of foreign currency equals the volume of domestic interest, it is difficult to hope for a change in trend. Stabilization of food inflation in August will support the position of the ruble, but there are no grounds for more noticeable optimism now.
In August, we expect the US dollar to fluctuate within 90-93 rubles, the euro — within the limits of 89-104 rubles, the yuan — in corridor 12-13 rubles.
“In August, there are prerequisites for the strengthening of the ruble: oil enters an uptrend, the spread (the difference between the purchase price of an asset and the cost of its sale.) of the Russian mixture Urals is narrowing, imports may slow down and the trade balance will improve. And the hard line of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation (that is, the mood to increase the key rate) is only in favor of the national currency.
As a result, we expect the completion of a three-week “flat” in the ruble (that is, dollar trading in the range of 89-91 rubles) and a correction in foreign currencies. The bar, after which the domestic currency will be promptly restored, is the value of 90 rubles per dollar. And other currencies will follow the «American». In the short term, the following rates are seen: the dollar will be traded within the limits of 87-88 rubles, the euro — in the corridor of 96-97 rubles, and the yuan will be at the levels of 12.2-12.1 rubles.
If you look a little wider, then in early autumn the ruble may strengthen even more. According to our estimates, a more or less fair area for the dollar is 85-83.5 rubles, the euro seems to be fairly valued in the range of 94-93 rubles, the yuan pulls in the region of 11.8 rubles.
“Now the exchange rate of the national currency is mainly determined by the balance of payments and the proceeds of exporters. If the volume of imports was stabilized in the second quarter of 2023, then exports began to decline due to a reduction in the supply of energy resources to foreign markets. In August, Russia agreed to voluntarily cut oil production by another 500,000 barrels per day, which should affect exports even more. However, the reduction in production will steadily affect the growth in energy prices, which can support the national currency, so in August we predict that the dollar will trade in the range of 85-94 rubles.
In relation to the yuan, from August 1, an interesting The picture is that from the designated period in transactions on the foreign exchange market, in addition to regular operations within the framework of the budget rule, the Bank of Russia will carry out transactions using the funds of the NWF for their placement in permitted assets within the Russian Federation. In this regard, we expect that the Chinese currency will be in the corridor of 12.1 — 13 rubles. The euro will be traded within 96-103 rubles.