Experts spoke about the risks in the country's fuel market
For the seventh day in a row, the exchange price of AI-95 gasoline is breaking a historical record: according to the results of trading on Thursday, it exceeded 74 thousand rubles per ton. Meanwhile, the authorities, through Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak, assured the public that there is no shortage of supply on the domestic market, «there is a balance on the stock exchange.» I wonder what kind of balance this is, in which right now, at the junction of summer and autumn, fuel quotes seem to have gone off the chain?
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At the St. Petersburg International Commodity and Raw Materials Exchange, «95th» gasoline rose in price by 0.82% (up to 74.304 rubles per ton), «92» — by 0.59% (up to 63.946 rubles). True, the cost of summer diesel fuel decreased by 0.08% (to 67.116 rubles), but this cannot be considered a kind of turning point in the general trend: in August, it beat historical records 12 times and grew to a maximum of 67.848 rubles per ton. Since the beginning of the year, the exchange price of various brands of gasoline has increased by 60-70%, diesel fuel — by 40%. As for consumer, retail prices for gasoline, this week, according to Rosstat, they added 0.4% after rising by 0.6% a week earlier. On average, a liter of AI-95 is now sold at gas stations for 55.07 rubles, and a liter of AI-92 — for 50.42 rubles.
Experts agree: today the fuel market requires enhanced stabilization measures by the state. One of the main reasons for concern is that the price dynamics outpaces the accumulated inflation and makes it unprofitable to sell gasoline and diesel fuel at gas stations to the end consumer. Moreover, the growth rates of prices — both exchange and wholesale, as well as retail prices — have sharply accelerated since mid-May. Along the way, there were interruptions in the supply of fuel at gas stations, which mainly affected the southern regions of the country: Astrakhan and Volgograd regions, Kalmykia, Crimea.
In addition, since September 1, by decision of the authorities, the size of the fuel damper has been halved, which in itself will deprive the raw material sector of billions of compensations — precisely for the fact that they hold back retail prices at gas stations. For example, in July, payments to oil workers through this compensation mechanism amounted to 110 billion rubles. It seems that the government realizes that at the current ruble exchange rate of 95 per dollar (instead of 66 per dollar in January), it is much more profitable for companies to sell fuel abroad. This leads to a restriction of supplies within the country and pushes up exchange prices.
“As the practice of past years shows, prices at filling stations are growing with some time lag from the exchange ones,” says Alexei Vedev, director of the Center for Structural Research at the RANEPA. “This is unavoidable even now. The question is how much? It all depends on the balance of supply and demand, on whether car owners want to pay for the rise in price of gasoline, or whether they begin to approach travel by private transport more economically. Traditionally, fuel prices are a powerful pro-inflationary factor and accelerate the rise in price of other goods. Given this circumstance, the Russian raw materials market needs constant monitoring and regulation by the state.”
Indeed, seeing what is happening, the state is taking certain measures. For example, recently the Ministry of Energy recommended that oil companies restrain small-scale wholesale prices for agricultural enterprises, says Nikita Maslennikov, a leading expert at the Center for Political Technologies. According to him, the situation is largely related to the redistribution of tourist flows this year: trips abroad have noticeably decreased, while domestic tourism, on the contrary, has flourished. Many people prefer to travel around the country by private car, which results in an increased demand for fuel. We should also not forget that the summer period is the height of planned repair work at refineries, and accordingly, supply is reduced.
“As for the specific exchange prices, they were largely affected by the decision of the Ministry of Energy and the July, says Maslennikov. — The minimum standards under which companies must sell gasoline and diesel fuel on the stock exchange were changed: for the first, the indicator increased from 12% to 13%, for the second — from 8.5% to 9.5%. Officially, this was done to stabilize the domestic market. But in the end, producers and exporters hurried to raise prices until September 1, until the new rule came into force. This is the global practice: when the state announces measures to tighten some regulatory regimes, businesses are in a hurry to extract the maximum margin for themselves from the current situation.”
According to Maslennikov, taking into account inflation, which has already exceeded 5%, grows with a weekly step of about 0.2%, and in December it will reach 6.5-7%, wholesale and retail prices for motor fuel will increase by the end of the year in the range from 8% to 10%.