Professor Safonov explained the specifics of the future indexation of pensions for workers
What working pensioners have been dreaming about for almost nine years has finally come true. Starting in 2025, indexation, frozen in 2016, will be restored. The corresponding bill has already been adopted by parliament and signed by the president. It will affect 7.8 million elderly workers, for whom justice will be restored. But not completely, warn skeptical experts. Those indexed funds that people did not receive during the «freeze» period, they will never receive.
MK asked Doctor of Economics, Professor of the Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation Alexander Safonov to talk about the nuances of pension innovations.
“The savings turned into significant losses”
— The decision to return pension indexation to working pensioners was made for several reasons. Firstly, in the conditions of the personnel shortage that has arisen in our country, it is necessary to create additional incentives for elderly, but, as they say, still fit people to remain in the labor market as long as possible. After all, the number of working pensioners in our country, according to Rosstat estimates, has been constantly decreasing. In 2015, there were about 15 million of them, in 2018 — already 10 million, at the beginning of last year — about 8 million, now — 7.8 million.
Secondly, the lack of indexation for working people has led to a mass exodus of working pensioners into the shadows and, consequently, to a loss of income for the budget from personal income tax, insurance premiums for pension, social and medical insurance.
Thirdly, pensioners who stopped working, with a low level of pension, could qualify for additional payments up to the subsistence level.
Fourth, during the years of absence of indexation, citizens learned to bypass the ban: they temporarily left work, received a recalculation of pensions, and again returned to the labor market.
And finally, fifthly: after improving the tax system, the government expects to receive additional revenue. And working pensioners will also be payers of these new taxes.
In short, the apparent savings during the period of indexation “freezing” resulted in significant losses for the country’s economy. Taking into account all these circumstances, it was decided to begin indexing pensions for this category of citizens.
—According to representatives of the Cabinet of Ministers, the resumption of indexation for working pensioners will cost 100 billion rubles next year. This is not a very serious amount, especially considering that the Russian Ministry of Finance estimated additional revenues from tax reform in 2025 at 2.6 trillion rubles.
But this is not all additional income. If we can return pensioners to the labor market or “remove” them from shadow employment, then we can potentially increase employment by 1 million people. And this, in turn, will allow us to receive additional insurance payments and personal income tax of up to 190 billion rubles.
“Moved to the legal sector — lost benefits”
— To some extent this is true. A long period of unemployment leads to a certain kind of desocialization — this is the so-called effect of long-term unemployment. In such a situation, a person loses incentive to work and reduces his needs, in other words, he gets used to living according to minimum standards. Getting him back into working order can be difficult. Will indexing recovery be enough for this? Let's wait and see.
— The history of the development of the pension system has seen different periods. Nowadays, few people remember that in the early 90s, the amount of debt for pension payments reached 17 trillion non-denominated rubles.
During the 1998 default, pensions were not paid at all for some time. Since the early 2000s, payments have become regular, in 2009, the valorization (increase) of Soviet-era pensions took place.
In 2015, a decision was made to stop indexing pensions for working pensioners, now a decision has been made to return indexation.
Pension systems directly depend on the general state of the economy and the development of society. So if the economy is stable, then the government’s decision will not change. We must remember that due to low salaries and pensions we have low; and it is impossible to build a developed economy with a poor population.
Thus, let’s hope that in the future there will be no need to revise current legislation, well, unless pensions grow to serious levels, exceeding the subsistence level by 3-4 times.
— It's a difficult question. Coming out of the shadows will most likely not be directly dependent on the return of pension indexation. Firstly, getting out of the shadows is a decision between two parties to the labor relationship: the employer and the employee. Even if the employee is ready, employers using informal relationships are unlikely to want this. Judge for yourself, shadow employment is a direct saving for them: they do not have to pay 13% personal income tax, 30% contributions to extra-budgetary funds. In other words, entering white-label employment means additional expenses to the wage fund of up to 43%. And the workers themselves save their 13%. Indexation of 5% or even 10% will not cover the loss of 13% of personal income tax. If a pensioner insists on whitewashing his salary, this could result in him losing his job. And this factor can become a determining incentive to maintain the status quo if something more suitable cannot be found on the labor market. Therefore, everything in this case will depend on the parallel actions of the authorities, which should introduce stricter control and penalties for underpaid contributions and taxes.
Secondly, the state provides a wide range of benefits to low-income people. I switched to the legal sector of the labor market — I lost my benefits. If you maintained an informal relationship, you won: your pension is indexed, your salary is available, and you receive benefits. Here, in my opinion, it is already necessary to think about changing the legislation, which would contain provisions on the return of illegally received benefits. This practice, for example, exists in relation to illegally obtained unemployment benefits and pensions. However, such measures must be introduced very carefully, since some activities are supported only by low personnel costs. Plus, it is also possible that inflation will accelerate as a result of rising costs of products and services.
— The most acceptable approach is the announcement of the introduction of new control instruments with a deferment of execution, say, for three years and the announcement of an amnesty upon leaving the shadows with a ban on opening criminal and administrative cases on this basis during the amnesty period and after it for those who agree to a gradual or one-time whitewashing of labor relations.
But you also need to understand that employers will actively use the self-employment regime to reduce the tax burden on the payroll.
So the process of whitewashing the employment of pensioners will be difficult.
< p>— It is difficult to estimate their numbers. It is hidden by both employers and pensioners. Mixed schemes can also be used: a small income as a self-employed person or working under an employment or civil contract, and the majority in an envelope.
But potentially, as mentioned above, we can talk about one million people. But there are also disabled people of working age who are also involved in the schemes described above. So the figure could reach up to 2 million people.
— The total effect for the budget alone when using this figure will be at least 380 billion rubles, plus the savings of regional budgets from the cessation of contributions to regional compulsory health insurance funds for formally unemployed, but in reality employed pensioners and disabled people. This amount amounts to almost 60 billion. The savings from providing unjustified benefits for low-income people are also significant. So the potential savings are almost half a trillion rubles. A significant part of the economic effect will go to local and regional budgets.
As for the effect of additional labor force — those who have actually left the labor market and are not working, it is unlikely to be significant, since as a result of the transition to later retirement dates, it is more difficult for men aged 65 to find a job that they can afford, if this associated with production activities.
The female part is a more real resource. Potentially, the possibilities of attracting or retaining an older workforce can be estimated at 1.5–2 million people. That is, GDP growth could be up to 5 trillion rubles, or 2.9%.
Tricks of arithmetic
— In essence, the law that restored indexation for working pensioners, indexation of pensions for this category of citizens will be carried out based on the accrued (calculated) amount that would have been due to the pensioner if his pension had been indexed annually since 2016.
—Let's look at it in numbers. If in 2015 a pensioner received a pension in the amount of 20,000 rubles and he continued to work, then his real pension amount remained at the same level in 2024 — 20,000. At the same time, the pension accrued to him in 2024 would be 37,143 rubles. This is the kind of pension a pensioner would receive if he left his job. It is from this size that indexing will be carried out.
But a working pensioner will receive 20,000 plus an indexation amount of 37,143 rubles. If we assume that inflation in 2024 will be 8% and the pension will be indexed to this level, then our working pensioner will receive 2,971 rubles of indexation and in total will begin to receive 22,971 rubles.
And the full pension, according to adopted law, will be able to receive it only if he stops his work activity.