A sharp increase in military spending and military production, the return of conscription, the preparation of bomb shelters
«If there is a war tomorrow, if the enemy attacks, if a dark force comes…» It is difficult to say whether he knows someone on the upper floors of the German government the famous lines of the Soviet songwriter Lebedev-Kumach. Unlikely, of course. But the mood prevailing there is best described by this song. Well, true, with the important amendment that war in Berlin is still not expected tomorrow.
Photo: Bundeswehr website.
“We must prepare for war until 2029,” said German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius, speaking in the Bundestag the other day. The minister did not hide from the deputies listening to him who he would have to fight in five years: “We should not think that Putin will stop at the borders of Ukraine if he goes that far. We must ensure containment so that it does not go to extremes.”
Why combat readiness should be achieved in 2029, neither earlier nor later, and where this date even came from, Pistorius did not explain. Perhaps the minister is relying on the calculations of his analysts, according to which Putin will not reach the western borders of Ukraine before 2029. But there is a suspicion that the issue here is not the capabilities of Russia and its army, but solely the capabilities of Germany itself. It’s just that it couldn’t cope with the modernization of its armed forces before.
Currently, according to Pistorius, the Bundeswehr has three main problems: financing, equipment, personnel. Let's start with the first one. Currently, the military department's annual budget is 52 billion euros, or approximately $56 billion. According to this indicator, Germany ranks seventh in the world, behind the UK, Saudi Arabia, India, Russia, China and the USA. But it is first in the EU, noticeably ahead of France ($47.2 billion, ninth place in the world ranking).
In addition, it must be taken into account that the actual military expenditures of the Federal Republic in the last two years have been much higher. At the beginning of 2022, the government allocated 100 billion euros for the modernization of the armed forces — within the framework of a special fund, which, however, has already been practically spent.
In any case, the Bundeswehr does not have enough current money. The immediate plans of the Ministry of Defense, for example, include ordering two new frigates for the Kriegsmarine (Navy), 35 Leopard 2 tanks and four Patriot air defense systems, but the budgetary framework does not allow this. Therefore, Pistorius insists on the allocation of an additional 6.5-7 billion euros and a steady increase in military spending in the future. And, apparently, he will achieve his goal.
As for personnel, Germany has nothing to boast about yet. Today, 181,438 people in uniform serve in the Bundeswehr (data from the official website of the country's armed forces). Plus – 80,739 civilians. Here the Federal Republic ranks 26th in the world, behind not only France, whose armed forces number 203 thousand troops (21st place in the world), but even behind Sri Lanka (255 thousand, 18th place).< /p>
The Bundeswehr was once much larger. Its number reached its peak in 1991 (at that time 534.5 thousand people served in the ranks of the German armed forces), but then, after the end of the Cold War, it began to decline rapidly. The terms of conscription service were gradually reduced: first from 18 months to a year, then to six months. And in 2011, the conscription was completely canceled. From now on, the Bundeswehr is staffed exclusively on a voluntary basis.
At the same time, there was a reduction in military spending. The process of demilitarization of Germany reached its apogee — or, more correctly, perigee — during the reign of Angela Merkel. The once very popular “Mommy” is now increasingly remembered in Germany with an unkind word, and not least for what she did to the armed forces.
By the way, the memoirs of Frau ex-chancellor are due to be published in November. The name is already known: “Freedom”. The content is more or less clear. Even the first reviews of a work that had not yet been published appeared. “Dear Angela Merkel,” writes, in particular, a columnist for Bild, Germany’s most widely read tabloid, “What you left us after your reign is the opposite of freedom… We have broken bridges. We have long lines for food for the poor. . We have a Bundeswehr that cannot defend itself…»
It is difficult to assess the validity of other claims from the outside. The laments about bridges and poverty are perhaps somewhat exaggerated. But the author seems to be right about the Bundeswehr. This is confirmed, among other things, by expert assessments. In the Military Strength Ranking, Germany currently ranks 19th, behind Ukraine, Israel, Australia, Egypt, Indonesia…
In general, Pistorius’s work, if he really intends to lift the country from 19th place in the Military Strength Ranking, will be truly hellish. But the work is already being done. Military production is growing rapidly. For example, the country's largest defense concern, Rheinmetall AG, recorded an 18 percent increase in orders last year (compared to the previous year). New production lines are being deployed, new military enterprises are being built.
The number of armed forces will not remain at the current level. “If a serious situation arises, we will need energetic young women and men who can defend our country,” Pistorius stressed to parliamentarians. Therefore, he considers it necessary to introduce a “new form of military service”, which “cannot be completely free from duties.”
Well, that is, we are talking about the return of conscription. The debate today is only about what form to return. Two main models of compulsory military service are discussed. Firstly, the old, classic one, in which only men are subject to conscription. And the new, so-called Swedish: in this case, all boys and girls who have reached the age of 18 and are in suitable health are liable for military service, but not everyone becomes recruits: the army selects from them the number of recruits required at the moment.
There is also, so to speak, a light option: increasing the number of the Bundeswehr by optimizing the current order of its recruitment — reducing bureaucratic obstacles and increasing the attractiveness of military service. But society, as evidenced by the results of recent opinion polls, is, in principle, quite ready for conscription.
According to the latest data, about half of those surveyed are in favor of the return of universal conscription, while only a third are against it. Even more Germans support an increase in military spending: this position is shared by 68 percent of participants in a survey conducted in April of this year by the sociological service Forsa.
Well, the latest significant news on the topic of remilitarization of the Federal Republic is the plan developed and presented by the government in case war. Everything is serious here too. The plan, Bild reports, provides, in particular, for the rapid transfer of Bundeswehr forces — along with other NATO troops — to the eastern borders of the North Atlantic Alliance.
In case of war, compulsory military service returns without any controversy or long ceremony: citizens can be drafted into the army at any time. In addition, the employment service will have the right to attract citizens aged 18 years and older to work in socially significant areas — for example, caring for the sick, working in the post office, in bakeries.
Companies not included in the military-industrial complex , can be involved in the production of goods for defense needs. Hospitals must be prepared for a sudden influx of large numbers of patients. Basements, underground parking lots and metro stations will be used as bomb shelters. Rationed distribution of food products may be introduced. An order may be given for the urgent evacuation of the population from some areas of the country — while it is forbidden to separate families… And so on and so forth.
In general, the process, as they say, has begun, and, despite the initial skepticism observers, goes quite quickly. It is impossible to predict to what extent it will change the country by 2029, but in any case it will be a different Germany.