The share of empty space in Moscow shopping centers fell to the level of 2019
On the eve of the new business season, Moscow shopping centers are experiencing an acute shortage of vacant space. The period of adaptation of the capital's retail real estate market after the mass departure of Western retail giants is over. The vacated premises were occupied by Russian retailers and new foreign brands, mainly from friendly countries of the East.
According to Ekaterina Nogai, Head of Research and Analytics at IBC Real Estate, at the end of July 2024, the vacancy rate in Moscow shopping centers was 8%, having decreased by 4 percentage points over the past 12 months. Such a minimum level was last observed before the coronavirus epidemic in 2019.
At the same time, the capital's shopping centers have recorded a record absorption rate (the volume of retail space that the market has absorbed over a certain period of time. — «MK»): in the first half of 2024, this figure was 461 thousand square meters. “The high absorption rate of high-quality retail space proves the rapid development of retailers,” the analyst emphasized. In her opinion, Russian and new international brands quickly responded to the decrease in competition and occupied empty niches. A new pool of fashion tenants has formed on the market, which have replaced international retail giants. “Many chain players have rebranded, expanded product lines, increased turnover, introduced new formats in stores,” Nogai emphasized.
Developers have caught the new winds and accelerated work on completing the construction of large retail facilities. Thus, according to Nikoliers, in January-June 2024, seven shopping centers with a total leasable area of 99.6 thousand square meters were opened in the capital region. This is twice as high as the level of last year, when 50.7 thousand square meters were commissioned. In 2024-2026, the total area of shopping centers (SC) declared for commissioning in the capital and within the Central Ring Road will amount to 968 thousand square meters. Moreover, more than half of these areas (52%) are will open as part of residential and multifunctional complexes, as well as transport hubs (TH).
According to experts, In the near future we should expect a change in the priorities of retail real estate developers. In the street retail segment Tenants' interest in premises in new residential buildings is expected to increase. The activity of investors in street–retail objects is hampered by high lending rates. To replace the popular ones this year shopping centers of district and district formats with 2025 will come the so-called. «super-regional» projects. So in the next three years in Moscow it is planned commissioning of three large-format facilities (multi-functional complex «Olympic», shopping center as part of the transport hub «Nagatinskaya», shopping center «Seligerskaya»).
As MK wrote earlier, according to the results of the first half of 2024, the top 3 cities with a million population with the best security trading the premises were headed Yekaterinburg (846 sq. m. per 1000 people), Krasnodar (785 sq. m.) and Samara (720 sq. m.). Moscow is only in fourth place in the CORE.XP ranking. In Belokamennaya per 1 thousand residents accounts for 635 sq. m. So the metropolitan retail real estate segment there is something to strive for.