Price adjustments at selected gas stations are still ongoing.
At gas stations in In Ukraine this week, prices for gasoline and diesel fuel jumped again. What pushes prices up and is it worth waiting for their rollback in the near future, reports the Chronicle.info with reference to RBC-Ukraine.
Gas station networks in January have twice sharply increased the cost of petroleum products. The average price of gasoline A-95 since the beginning of the year in retail has increased from 30.21 to 32.62 hryvnia/liter. A «diesel» increased in price from 29.40 to 31.92 hryvnia/liter, as evidenced by the daily monitoring of the consulting company «A-95».
The latest review of fuel prices began this week, when the Ministry of Economy published average prices for A-95 gasoline (29.25 hryvnia/liter) and diesel fuel (26.84 hryvnia/liter). Last May, the Cabinet of Ministers, as you know, introduced state regulation by setting a limit on the trade margin for chains — for gasoline 5 hryvnia, for diesel fuel — 7 hryvnia. This norm was not extended to premium segment gasoline.
The average price to which networks can add a margin within the limit is adjusted every 10 days according to the calculations of NJSC «Naftogaz of Ukraine», based on the data of the Platts CIF NWE agency. After the publication of the average price this week, taking into account the markup, gasoline A-95 cannot be more expensive than 34.25 hryvnia/liter, and diesel fuel — 33.84 hryvnia/liter.
Literally immediately after the message of the Ministry of Economy, prices increased WOG, SOCAR, OKKO, KLO, AMIC and other networks. Following them, a day later, the cost of fuel was adjusted by «Ukrnafta», which owns the largest network of filling stations in the country, as well as «Avias» and a number of others.
Not all traders work close to the maximum price, but for the majority, for example, for gasoline, it is already higher than 32-33 hryvnia/liter. Price adjustments at individual gas stations are still ongoing.
Oil is getting more expensive, the hryvnia is falling
For traders, the price increase in January was expected. World quotations for oil products, which are directly correlated with oil prices, and the hryvnia exchange rate against the dollar and the euro are the main factors influencing fuel pricing, says Vasyl Dmytriv, marketing director of the OKKO network.
«Unfortunately, recently the dynamics of one and the other negatively affects the purchase prices, which, ultimately, is reflected in the estimated prices, which are published every ten days by the Ministry of Economy», – he said.
< p>Since the beginning of December, Dmytriv noted, the rate «dipped» by 1.5 hryvnia/dollar, and world quotations for oil products grew by more than 20%.
Key adjustments for both oil and the exchange rate occurred in January — quotes rose by 15%, at the peak the price of Brent oil exceeded $ 90/barrel — a record level since 2014, says the director of the consulting company & # 171; A-95 & # 187; Sergiy Kuyun.
«These factors have been reflected in retail prices over the past two weeks», — confirmed the press service of «Ukrnafta».
A similar opinion is shared by SOCAR Energy Ukraine. «Since we have an imported resource, the growth of fuel is affected by the ratio of the dollar to the hryvnia and the world price of oil», the company told the publication.
At the beginning of this week, the oil market «turned around» and the price dropped to $85/barrel, Kuyun explained. «If this level continues, we can count on the cooling of the domestic market of petroleum products», — the expert believes.
At the same time, in his opinion, the currency factor can offset the adjustment in oil prices. «Since the beginning of the year, the dollar has strengthened by 1.3 hryvnia, which means an increase in the cost of petroleum products by 1 hryvnia/liter. If the dollar continues to strengthen, this may compensate for the fall in oil prices and it will go unnoticed by the consumer,” he says.
Gas station chains recognize that there is a drop in sales, but they attribute this to a seasonal factor. «It is typical for the winter period that demand in retail falls slightly. This is due to the fact that the number of trips by car is decreasing», SOCAR Energy Ukraine explained.
Low stocks and high demand
Oil on world markets rose in price for more than a month. Quotes on premium brands have updated long-term records. And although there was a slight adjustment during the week, the upward trend, according to Western analysts, will continue throughout 2022. Oil prices will rise by about 12%, experts from the International Monetary Fund indicate in a January report.
The decline in oil prices is expected in the 23rd year, when the imbalance between supply and demand will be reduced, indicate the IMF. The fund believes that for many countries the cost of energy resources (both oil and gas) may increase due to the tense political situation around Ukraine. This risk is realized in the event of a new invasion of the Russian Federation.
Geopolitical alignments are just one of the elements of tension in the oil market. Due to high demand and low oil reserves in the middle of the year, the price per barrel of Brent could reach $120, Bank of America predicts. Morgan Stanley also revised its expectations, raising its forecast for this brand of oil from $90 to $100 per barrel for the third quarter.
The expectations of Citigroup analysts are clearly out of these forecasts, according to which the price of oil may fall to $65 per barrel to the fourth quarter. According to Citigroup experts, this will be influenced by an oversupply of oil in the market due to an increase in production.
Much will depend on the position of OPEC+ countries regarding oil production plans, as well as economic recovery after the pandemic. New quarantine restrictions in the world may reduce demand, which will ultimately affect the cost of petroleum products.