MOSCOW, June 25The decision to extend the contract for gas transit through the territory of Ukraine in 2024 will be made taking into account the interests of European consumers, the interviewed experts believe.
Ukraine's Energy Minister Herman Galushchenko, the Financial Times reported on Thursday, said that the chances of reaching an agreement with Russia to extend the gas transit agreement in 2024 are slim. At the end of 2019, the parties signed a transit contract for five years, according to which Gazprom guarantees the pumping of 65 billion cubic meters of gas in the first year and 40 billion in the next four. The contract expires at the end of 2024.
«The decision to extend the contract for the transit of Russian gas through the territory of Ukraine will be made taking into account the interests of European consumers and with their participation,» the director notes Center for Economics of the Fuel and Energy Complex of the Center for Strategic Research Alexander Amiraghyan.
Now gas transit through Ukraine comes to the countries of Eastern Europe, primarily to Slovakia, Austria and Hungary. Most likely, the expert believes, these countries will be interested in maintaining gas supplies from Russia in accordance with the current contracts with Gazprom. Particularly important, Amiragyan adds, could be the role of Hungary, which at the official level advocates the preservation of Russian energy supplies.
None of the parties has yet officially announced the end of cooperation, so theoretically next year we can expect negotiations to extend the transit agreement, says Maria Belova, research director at Vygon Consulting. “It is clear that this is quite difficult to implement in the current conditions, but there is an example of a “grain deal”, where agreements were reached with the participation of intermediaries. Gazprom’s decision on the fate of the transit agreement with Ukraine will largely depend on the format of its further interaction with its customers in Europe,» she says.
The Ukrainian route is one of two transport arteries of Russian gas supplies to Europe. Now the region receives about five percent of imported gas through it. Another Russian gas supply route, TurkStream, provides Europe with about three percent of imported gas.